tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post5196092217488449670..comments2024-03-11T00:31:41.186-07:00Comments on The Oregon Economics Blog: Yes, the Employment Report is Very GoodPatrick Emersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17242234148546323374noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-15771257088865935942012-01-10T10:24:40.350-08:002012-01-10T10:24:40.350-08:00Jeff,
Well, everyone has their own definition of ...Jeff,<br /><br />Well, everyone has their own definition of healthy. We would need to see month after month of 300,000 to 350,000 job growth to return to 2006 unemployment levels in a reasonable time frame. So in that light, 200,000 is nothing to crow about. But you have to crawl before you can walk and even in the best of times 350,000 is a huge number. So I would be satisfied if we can sustain 200,000 to 250,000 numbers this year.<br /><br />But, even though this is an optimistic post, I am skeptical we can do it.Patrick Emersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17242234148546323374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-15452571576914340072012-01-07T16:49:40.337-08:002012-01-07T16:49:40.337-08:00Patrick, a question has been floating just out of ...Patrick, a question has been floating just out of focus at the back of my brain lately, and your post and these comments has sharpened it. I've been wondering about what a healthy recovery would look like. Let's say you took the circumstances from about June 09 and went from there. <br /><br />We cratered so deeply that it will take, as R points out, a long, long time to get back up to ground zero. But should we fear a very speedy spike even though we'd love to get back up quickly? Should we fear an overheated economy? I guess I just look at the bubbles of the past fifteen years and have lost my appetite for roaring success. But maybe this is psychological, not real.Jeff Alworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-23309134890861721232012-01-06T16:20:22.362-08:002012-01-06T16:20:22.362-08:00R, yes we are forgetting about the debt right now ...R, yes we are forgetting about the debt right now becuase 10year Treasury bond are at 2% and 30 year are at 3%. Right not the important number is employment.<br /><br />Although labor market participation is an important metric I dont think you can say that the last jobs report wasn't pretty great. We have had positive job growth for the last 15 months! If you head to pretty much any downtown in Oregon you can tell see how many shops are open WITH people shopping. I'm pretty sure the ship is turning.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03551904586302918944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-66352172287568571922012-01-06T13:41:18.398-08:002012-01-06T13:41:18.398-08:00Oh Really? http://goo.gl/mTTmG
Also we're Jus...Oh Really? http://goo.gl/mTTmG<br /><br />Also we're Just forgetting about all the national debt and just focusing on jobs numbers for economic prosperity? <br /><br />I appreciate the optimistic post but I still find it hard to believe the ship is turning.Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15343802465767017199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-45181548413093219352012-01-06T13:21:57.439-08:002012-01-06T13:21:57.439-08:00As I said the whole ship has to get turned around ...As I said the whole ship has to get turned around and start building up steam. This ship does not go from zero to sixty (or 30 say, if we are talking ocean liners and knots) instantaneously. <br /><br />What I am looking for in these reports are signs that the private sector is beginning to ramp up production due to increased demand and I think that's exactly what the numbers show. Now, if next month we are back under or near 100,000 it'll be back to hand wringing.Patrick Emersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17242234148546323374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-36728091070889366942012-01-06T13:16:51.494-08:002012-01-06T13:16:51.494-08:00As has been out in a number of places, even at thi...As has been out in a number of places, even at this 'very good' rate it's going to take 8-9 years to return to the employment we had before the crisis hit. That's 12-13 of dismal employment – a true catastrophe.<br /><br />We may be climbing, but we're still in a really deep hole, and I think it does a disservice to the millions of unemployed to forget that.GeoGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02596534612535469564noreply@blogger.com