tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post6786050094794698438..comments2024-03-11T00:31:41.186-07:00Comments on The Oregon Economics Blog: Portland's Housing Market: The December CS NumbersPatrick Emersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17242234148546323374noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-47116294359290115342008-12-31T00:20:00.000-08:002008-12-31T00:20:00.000-08:00"I think the worm is about to turn. It is crazy to..."I think the worm is about to turn. It is crazy to sit on the sidelines too much longer and good deals are plentiful."<BR/><BR/>This thinking is very optimistic and probably wrong. Portland prices are still above historical norms, in terms of pricing and affordability. In other words, we haven't fully corrected from the bubble, which should happen around the end of 2009 at current rates of decline. Good deals are not all that plentiful yet, and consumers know it. We also have to allow for the possibility we will overshoot the correction--bubbles often work both ways.<BR/><BR/>Even if consumer credit markets ease somewhat in 2009 (big IF--we don't know it will happen) with unemployment rising throughout the year, consumers will be very skittish to take on new commitments. This general paralysis will last throughout 2009 at the very least. Labor markets typically lag the economy by 4-6 quarters, so we won't see labor markets bottom out until late 2010 at the soonest, but 2011 is more probable.Greg Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14077706740772451079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3471471289744825428.post-36072454011663835282008-12-30T15:15:00.000-08:002008-12-30T15:15:00.000-08:00A Specific Application of Employment, Interest and...<B>A Specific Application of Employment, Interest and Money<BR/><BR/>Plea for an Adventure in a New World Economic Order<BR/><BR/>Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes and Alan Greenspan: a Unified Perspective</B><BR/><BR/>Abstract:<BR/><BR/><I>This tract makes a critical analysis of credit based, free market economy, Capitalism, and proves that its dysfunctions are the result of the existence of credit. <BR/><BR/>It shows that income / wealth disparity, cause and consequence of credit, is the first order hidden variable, possibly the only one, of economic development. <BR/><BR/>It solves most of the puzzles of macro economy: among which Business Cycles, Stagflation, Greenspan Conundrum and Keynes' Liquidity Trap... <BR/><BR/>It shows that Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx and Alan Greenspan don't contradict each other but that they each bring a meaningful contribution to a same framework for understanding macro economy.<BR/><BR/>It proposes a credit free, free market economy as a solution that would correct all of those dysfunctions.<BR/><BR/>In This Age of Turbulence People Want an Exit Strategy out of Credit, an Adventure in a New World Economic Order.</I><BR/><BR/><B><A HREF="http://edsk.org/" REL="nofollow">Read It.</A></B>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com