Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller December Numbers

As you can probably tell from the lack of posts that I am currently swamped, so here is a punt to the Wall Street Journal for the latest Case-Shiller numbers.

The basics: Portland down 4% since December last year and down 0.4% from November to December.  This last number is fourth best, but eh year to year is middle of the pack in the 20 metro area group.

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller August Numbers

Portland home values were flat in August (up 0.1%) and down 7.6% since August of last year.  Except for a couple of outliers, most of the 20 metro areas Case-Shiller tracks did not budge much.  

One interesting tidbit, home values are so low in Detroit that it actually had the biggest annual gain, increasing 2.7%.  In fact, only Detroit and Washington, DC (0.3%) were in positive territory.

The Wall Street Journal has their sortable table ready for your manipulation.

Portland Home Values: Slight Increase in May

The May 2011 Case-Shiller numbers are out and the values increased 1.6% over the previous month for Portland.  16 out of the 20 metro areas in the index saw increased home values.  What I have plotted above are the seasonally adjusted numbers which show a slight decline for Portland (not the normal spring uptick).  Annually Portland lost 9.1% of its home value which puts us in the top 5, not surprising given the state's unemployment levels.  Overall the 20 city index showed a 1% gain for the month, but a 4.5% loss from a year ago.  I still feel reasonably good about my statement at the beginning of 2011 that I didn't think that the year would see substantial decreases or increases but there are 7 more months of data to go so we'll see.

Case-Shiller: Portland home Values Still Falling

The post title says it all: the March Case-Shiller report is out and US home values are still dropping significantly.

Here is Brent Hunsberger's write-up in the Oregonian and here is a nice sortable table from the Wall Street Journal.  You can see from the latter that Portland has seen the fourth worst year over year drop in home values, but is one of the better markets in terms of monthly change, losing only 0.7% of value over the last month.

I had assumed this year (2011) would be one of bumps but no significant gain or loss.  It'll take a minor recovery in the summer/fall for my prediction to come true and it is not looking so good right now.

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller February Numbers

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index numbers are out for February and its more of the same as can be clearly seen from the graph above.  From the AP/Oregonian story:

The Standard &Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index shows price declines in 19 cities from January to February. The index fell for the seventh straight month. Prices fell at a faster rate in 11 markets in February compared with the previous month.

In the Portland metro area, prices fell 1.8 percent in February and were down 7 percent from February 2010. Only five other cities in the survey had sharper one-month declines. The Portland-area price index is now at a level not seen since the fall of 2004.

Average home prices in all 20 cities are now back to their summer 2003 levels.
High unemployment, stricter lending rules and fears that prices will fall further are among the reasons why few people are buying and selling homes. A record number of foreclosures are forcing down home prices in most metro areas, and prices are expected to keep falling through this year.

Which is pretty much how I'd describe it.  Particularly for the Oregon market, but true in general, continued high unemployment is really keeping housing prices from going anywhere but up down.  Though there has been a continued slow erosion of housing values in Portland, relative to the period of rapid decline, my previous prediction of a long period of trolling along the bottom is still reasonably true.  I'll be most curious to see how the April through July numbers turn out, this will be the first good indication of whether the market is starting to turn.

Portland Home Values Showing the Effect of a Long Spell of High Unemployment

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January is out and the dismal news for the Portland housing market continues.  This is not surprising as a couple of years of high unemployment is bound to have a serious impact, but depressing nonetheless.  

Here is a nice sortable table of the January numbers courtesy of the Wall Street Journal.  The headline numbers for Portland are a 7.8% decline since January of the year before and a 1.8% decline from december to January.

I do finally think that we are moving in the right direction in general, the jobs numbers have been good and overall US growth is pretty healthy, but it will take a while before we see these improvements make their way into property values.

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller December Numbers

And now for your monthly Case-Shiller update.  The December numbers are out and things continue to look grim for Portland (and the US in general).  With the federal new home buyer credit ending, the backlog of defaults and the continuing unemployment situation, the downward pressure on prices is still strong.

But, in some better news, consumer confidence is up sharply.

Case-Shiller October Numbers Show Continued Weakness in Housing

Including Portland and Seattle.  Here is the Wall Street Journal's table.

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Metro Area	October 2010	Change from September	Year-over-year change
Atlanta	103.30	-2.9%	-6.2%
Boston	154.35	-1.2%	-0.2%
Charlotte	114.06	-1.1%	-4.2%
Chicago	122.28	-2.0%	-6.5%
Cleveland	102.20	-1.5%	-2.6%
Dallas	116.16	-1.1%	-3.1%
Denver	126.59	-0.6%	-1.8%
Detroit	68.86	-2.5%	-5.5%
Las Vegas	100.97	-0.2%	-3.6%
Los Angeles	174.05	-0.7%	3.3%
Miami	144.03	-1.1%	-3.4%
Minneapolis	121.30	-1.9%	-2.8%
New York	171.50	-1.6%	-1.7%
Phoenix	105.97	-1.1%	-4.3%
Portland	142.16	-1.5%	-5.2%
San Diego	159.99	-1.5%	3.0%
San Francisco	138.84	-1.9%	2.2%
Seattle	143.13	-1.3%	-4.1%
Tampa	135.21	-0.9%	-3.6%
Washington	186.67	-0.2%	3.7%

Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData

Portland Home Values: The August Case-Shiller Update

Here are the numbers, nicely displayed thanks to the Wall Street Journal:

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Metro Area  ↓	August 2010	Change from July	Year-over-year change
Atlanta	109.09	-0.8%	-2.0%
Boston	158.35	-0.3%	1.5%
Charlotte	116.6	-0.4%	-3.4%
Chicago	126.7	0.4%	-2.9%
Cleveland	107	-0.3%	-0.4%
Dallas	119.41	-1.1%	-1.7%
Denver	128.57	-0.1%	-1.2%
Detroit	71.54	0.5%	-0.1%
Las Vegas	101.03	0.1%	-4.5%
Los Angeles	175.55	-0.4%	5.4%
Miami	147.47	-0.3%	-1.0%
Minneapolis	126.53	-0.3%	2.9%
New York	175.27	0.2%	0.1%
Phoenix	108.84	-1.3%	0.4%
Portland	147.02	-0.9%	-2.3%
San Diego	163.99	-0.6%	6.9%
San Francisco	142.83	-0.3%	7.8%
Seattle	145.93	-0.8%	-2.4%
Tampa	137.53	-0.5%	-4.1%
Washington	188.26	0.3%	4.8%

Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData

The news is bad: Portland is losing ground and in the top group for lost value. Not at all surprising given the unemployment situation.

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller June Numbers

Once again, farmed out to the Wall Street Journal, after all nothing much is happening in Portland to make a specific graph worthwhile - we have pretty much been holding steady since the beginning of 2009.  The sobering fact here is that this represents the tail end of sales influenced by the government tax credit, we may start to see another wholesale decline soon given the current moribund state of residential real estate transactions.

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Metro Area	June 2010	Change from May	Year-over-year change
Atlanta	109.74	1.7%	2.0%
Boston	157.83	1.2%	3.4%
Charlotte	117.24	0.7%	-2.7%
Chicago	124.9	2.5%	-0.1%
Cleveland	107.26	1.3%	0.8%
Dallas	121.14	1.0%	1.2%
Denver	129.19	0.7%	1.8%
Detroit	70.04	2.5%	0.8%
Las Vegas	101.77	-0.6%	-5.2%
Los Angeles	175.66	0.6%	9.2%
Miami	146.92	0.4%	1.1%
Minneapolis	125.91	2.5%	10.7%
New York	172.76	1.3%	0.2%
Phoenix	110.98	0.0%	6.0%
Portland	148.73	0.5%	0.2%
San Diego	163.82	0.4%	11.2%
San Francisco	142.55	0.3%	14.3%
Seattle	146.83	0.0%	-1.8%
Tampa	138.58	0.2%	-1.6%
Washington	185.77	1.7%	7.3%

Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller May Numbers

Once again, I am farming this out entirely to the Wall Street Journal.  Portland's home values increased slightly from April and from the previous year, but what little improvement there was most likely is representative of the federal incentive programs.  Portland is, and always has been, unexceptional - middling in terms of increases and decreases in home values. Here is the WSJs chart:

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Metro Area	May 2010	Change from April	Year-over-year change
Atlanta	107.82	2.0%	1.7%
Boston	155.95	1.6%	4.8%
Charlotte	116.39	0.3%	-2.8%
Chicago	121.9	1.2%	-1.5%
Cleveland	105.85	1.0%	3.7%
Dallas	119.93	1.5%	2.9%
Denver	128.24	0.6%	3.6%
Detroit	68.29	0.7%	-2.5%
Las Vegas	102.35	-0.5%	-6.5%
Los Angeles	174.67	1.7%	9.7%
Miami	146.33	0.9%	1.2%
Minneapolis	122.63	2.8%	11.6%
New York	170.45	0.8%	-0.4%
Phoenix	111	0.9%	7.2%
Portland	147.98	1.2%	0.7%
San Diego	163.11	1.1%	12.4%
San Francisco	142.16	1.7%	18.3%
Seattle	146.82	1.2%	-1.4%
Tampa	138.29	0.9%	-1.5%
Washington	182.1	1.5%	7.4%

Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller March Numbers

Farmed out entirely to the Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics Blog:

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Metro Area	March 2010	Change from February	Year-over-year change  ↓
Las Vegas	102.58	-0.8%	-12.0%
Detroit	67.66	-4.1%	-4.6%
Charlotte	114.74	-1.1%	-3.9%
Seattle	143.73	0.1%	-3.6%
Tampa	136.46	-0.1%	-3.5%
Portland	143.61	-0.1%	-2.8%
New York	169.42	-0.7%	-2.4%
Chicago	119.71	-2.3%	-2.3%
Miami	146.15	-0.9%	-1.7%
Atlanta	103.74	-1.8%	-1.3%
Phoenix	109.52	-0.5%	2.4%
Dallas	115.74	0.4%	3.0%
Boston	151.42	0.0%	3.8%
Denver	125.31	0.6%	4.1%
Washington	175.28	-0.7%	5.6%
Los Angeles	170.62	-0.7%	6.0%
Minneapolis	116.66	-2.7%	6.5%
Cleveland	103.32	1.8%	6.7%
San Diego	160.22	1.5%	10.8%
San Francisco	136.74	1.5%	16.2%

Portland is not a particularly bad market, nor is it particularly good and I don't expect this to change any time soon. I think, as I have said before, that we are like to go through all of 2010 without too much appreciation or depreciation.  The new home buyer tax credit will expire, but the summer season will pick up and long-term mortgage rates are still incredibly low (helped now, ironically, by the troubles in Europe as the Dollar becomes a safer bet than the Euro), however unemployment will continue to depress housing. Which all means it is about as good a time to buy as you are likely to see in your lifetime as long as you are in it for the long -term.