New Poll: Stimulus or Austerity?

Paul Krugman has a new column today about what he considers to be the misguided emphasis on getting deficits under control in the midst of a severe recession.  He thinks that it is imperative to spend now to spur the economy and become fiscally austere later.  How do you tell?  When the Fed is no longer up against the zero lower bound.  [Of course this zero lower bound is a matter of policy as well - the Fed could start raising rates whenever it decides to]

Anyway, this makes me wonder about the attitudes of my readers, are you generally in favor of more stimulus or more austerity (I don't allow you to be neutral)?

I don't presume you believe in the theory of stimulus - if you don't I assume you will vote on austerity.

Let me know what you think.

Beeronomics: Hops Poll

Hey thanks for chiming in on my now closed hops poll. I think the Hopopotamus®
 will begin life with a four different hops (because a Hopopotamus®
 should really full of both lots of hops and lots of varieties). So I am going to go with Crystal as a base, and Amarillo, Cascade and a touch of Simcoe hops for flavor and aroma.  Crazy, I know, but the people are going to expect something crazy good when they hear the name Hopopotamus®.  And what the people want, I deliver.

The wisdom of the crowd - well really just a gaggle - suggested Willamette, but Simcoe is just too alluring...

I'll let you know how it turns out.

Hops Poll

Time is running out on your ability to influence my decision about the hops to go into the Hopopotamus®.

It looks like Amarillo and Cascade are clear winners and Crystal is goign strong, the three I mentioned were all ready in my mind.  But I am intrigued by Simcoe - it may be hard to get but I found out that Double Mountain uses it (and Brewer's Gold) for their sublime IRA which was, in my mind, the belle of the ball at the Firkin Fest last weekend.

Anyway, register your vote soon - I plan to hit Steinbart's on Saturday.

Poll Results: End of the Recession and Taxes

I realize that polls like this tell me more about my readers than about how the general public will vote, but I am sometime surprised at the results I get.

My readers seem to be pessimistic as the last poll, about the end of the recession, suggests (results in the right hand column). The answer to this question is Q3 given the way I defined it which was simply "return to positive GDP growth." Of course we could turn negative again so the pessimists may yet be proven right.

But reader of this blog appear very willing to support the tax increases enacted by the legislature. By a two to one margin readers responded that they would vote yes on measures 66 & 67. Perhaps many of my readers have children in public schools like I do so they can see firsthand the effects of the budget cuts. Perhaps my readers have had to rely on state provided social services in this downturn and worry about their availability if these measures don't pass. I don't know, but I had guessed about a 50/50 split when I posted the poll so I am surprised at the result.

Anyway, thanks for voting, thanks for reading and thanks for commenting on the blog.

New Poll! Right Track/Wrong Track

I have a new poll up. I am curious to know (in general terms) if you think the federal and state response to the recession are appropriate in the context of the Oregon economy.  I use the pollsters favorite right track/wrong track language for no real reason except it sound "poll-ish."

You have until the end of the month to weigh in.

New Poll

Okay, new poll. Which quarter will be the first to see positive GDP growth and thus signal the end of the recession? Yes, I know it is not exactly the same thing, but for the purposes of this poll, positive GDP growth means recession over. And I have finally learned my lesson and created a category for all the uber-pessimists out there. You have one month.

Poll Results and Portland Politics

The poll is closed and the masses have spoken: MLS in Portland is a Boondoggle.

Given that I have been an ardent supporter of the deal, this result can be interpreted in many ways:

1. My readers are intelligent and independent and are willing to consider my opinions but are not unduly influenced by them.

2. I am not very persuasive.

3. I was fighting against truth and reason all along and I should wake up to that fact.

4. Some dude was stuffing the poll.

I hope the truth is 1. I hope this is true in general and if this poll is an artifact of this fact, then this is wonderful news. 2 is also probably true. I am not ready to accept 3 - I am not convinced that the opportunity cost of turning down this deal has been adequately understood. I suspect 4, however. The poll suddenly took a decided turn in the opposite direction and continued its trajectory suspiciously. Though the economic indicators of the Oregon economy did the same...

But who knows? And who really cares, the point is that if this is any indication of the mood among the general population, Paulson and City Hall have some more work to do to convince people.

And speaking of City Hall, will The Oregonian ever give up on trying to run Adams out of office? Regardless of what their personal opinions are, he is our mayor and needs to be effective for our well-being and their crusade is contrary to our interests. Normally I respect David Sarasohn's opinion pieces, but when he writes the following I wonder what he is thinking:

Friday brought yet another development in the endless tale of the mayor's admitted lies and his desperate effort to survive in office. From Freedom of Information Act requests, Ryan Frank and Brent Walth of The Oregonian reported 33 phone calls from Adams to Beau Breedlove before Breedlove turned 18, a very different view of the relationship from even the mayor's most recent account of it.

There was actually another City Hall story Friday, about Portland's new budget, with higher than expected revenues allowing the city to maintain more of its services.

Guess which was the top City Hall story of the day?

Ummm, it was The Oregonian that made it the story of the day and could have (AND SHOULD HAVE) made the budget the story of the day. When the major daily of the city is not focusing its reportorial energies where it should, don't blame city hall. This is like saying "I hit you for no reason and therefore you must have been at fault."

The Unemployment Poll: The Final Results

The poll is now closed and there is a pretty strong focal point: 12%. I voted for 11% at the inception and the optimist in me hopes I am right that it will remain below 12% (I was thinking of 11% as anything under 12%). What is striking is how many voted for 13% to 16%. I consider this people who think we will enter a depression, not just recession. Scary. February will eclipse 10% for sure so it is really a matter of how quickly we can arrest the fall. Each week brings new bad news about the breadth and dept of the downturn making me increasingly pessimistic.

The key to everything is the quick and orderly reorganization of the banking sector. I think the fiscal stimulus is inconsequential without sorting out the credit sector. I wish the Treasury would more faster and in a more comprehensive manner. I am not quite ready to jump on the nationalize now bandwagon (I fear you run the risk of killing solvent banks if you start to nationalize the insolvent ones), but show me the current plan will work - I have yet to see private willingness to take on toxic assets even with government support.

New Poll: Oregon's Unemployment Rate

For all you dismal scientists out there, how more dismal can you get than a poll on unemployment? Register your pessimism in the new poll by the end of the year.

The last poll ended up at 68% in favor of allowing self-service gas to 31% opposed. But I suppose now is not the time to talk about allowing gas stations to cut their staffs...

By the way, I only went up to 12%, did I allow enough room for the uber-pessimists out there?

Oregon Self-Service Gas Poll Open Again

I have reopened the poll, why?: lots of new readers, election coming up, because I want to...

See here for discussion if the issue.

The People Have Spoken - Self-Serve Gas Now!

The readers of The Oregon Economics Blog, who are without a doubt a representative sample of the entire State of Oregon, have by 2/3 rds majority vote come out in favor of allowing self-service gas! Well done! I have never been more heartened by an empty victory in my life.

Score one for liberty... and take that Sara Gelser! It is clear that 2/3 rds of the state of Oregon want self-service gas, who are our government representatives to deny us our smelly hands and dirty pants? I smell initiative - perhaps I should get Bill Sizemore on the job...

New Poll! Self-Service Gas?

Readers of my blog may already know, as I have posted on this previously, but there are few things things that get under my skin as much as the prohibition on self-service gas in Oregon.

I find the arguments supporting the prohibition wanting:

Consumer safety? I don't believe that there is a rash of fires, explosions and injuries in the other 48 states that allow self-service gas.

Mothers with babies? (Why is it always mothers, what about us dads?) First, the many times when I was living in Colorado, schlepping babies and getting gas, I never once had a problem. Second, you could still mandate at least one full-service pump, though I think demand will be so weak that this will end up being mostly unused - which is why you rarely see full-service anymore in the self-service states.

Important for employment? You have got to be kidding, right? Oh, no? OK, well you can still tell gas stations they have to employ so many people per pump, etc. Sound absurd? It is! And no different than the prohibition on self-service gas. Why not tell all retail outlets that they have to employ a minimum number of people and eliminate all unemployment in Oregon?! Why did anyone think of that? Because doing so with either force wages down or (especially with a high minimum wage) eliminate some employers altogether likely lowering overall employment.

I am sure most of you are much more level headed than I about this issue, and perhaps I have it all wrong and this, in fact, is a precious quirk of Oregon that you all cherish. State Rep for Corvallis Sara Gelser seemed to think so when I asked her to please introduce legislation to change the law (she refused saying something crazy about mental health care and child welfare being more important - what is more important than letting me pump my own gas?).

So let me know what you think - vote!

The Final Verdict: No Sales Tax in Oregon

Well, the final poll results are in and reflect the general split all along: A small majority prefer not to introduce a sales tax. I suspect that it has mostly to do with concerns of regressivity and the distrust of politicians to do enough to counter it. I concede that it would be a tough political fight, but I am also quite concerned about being such an outlier on income taxes. Still my support for the sales tax waned the more I got into the morass of the data. I would support a tax package that introduced the sales tax and reduced the income tax but also made it progressive. I think, however, the ability to deduct the income tax on federal returns is a pretty big counterargument, so I would not mind a relatively high income tax along with a small sales tax.

But my readers have spoken and I am beholden to them. I have tried my best to educate (while still keeping my job - meaning having to do the tax research in my spare time) and after delivering what I hope is a fair reading of the evidence and arguments, my readers have filed to find convincing the arguments for the tax. Thus I consider the case closed. If readers of The Oregon Economics Blog don't think it is good for Oregon, than it is not.

Thanks to all who participated in the poll.

Note on Tax Poll

Yes, I have done it again - extended the voting. But I am keeping track of the final intial vote: 45 for / 56 against the sales tax. I will post more next week about it and perhaps this ratio will change.

Sales Tax Poll

As I prepare my magnum opus on sales taxes, it is time for another poll. I would like to know if you think Oregon should have one. My opinion is already known, but I would like to know yours - my faithful three readers. Winter quarter is on its way, so I am going to keep the poll open for a few weeks to allow the fresh and unencumbered minds of OSU undergrads to weigh in as well.

Vote over there on the right, and comment here.