Soccernomics: Timbers in Disarray Edition

Class: Stephen Ireland was clearly the best player on the pitch last night.
His movement, both laterally and vertically, never stopped.

Because I know that this is the first place you turn for your soccer news, I find it my duty to oblige.  It has been a very interesting diversion to watch the Timbers implode this season and no one seems to know what to make of it.  Except me, of course...

The dismissal of John Spencer as Manager Head Coach (it is funny how we adopt some British terms but not all) caught me by surprise.  Sure the Timbers are struggling but they are a second-year expansion team with an incredibly young and inexperienced roster.  What do you expect?  I believe Spencer thought he had some time to build the team and it was my general opinion that he should be given three years and evaluated only at the end.  

So what happened?  My guess is it all comes down to Nagbe.  Well, not just him, but his category: young developing players of which the Timbers have a lot: Nagbe, Mwanga, Alhassan, Renken, Rincon, Valencia, Jean-Baptiste, Mosquera, etc.  If you look at Nagbe today versus a year and a half ago can you really see growth as a player?  No.  Is it Spencer's fault? Probably not entirely, but I suspect that this is why Paulson chose to pull the trigger so quickly.  This is the only reason I can think of that you would make such a drastic move, if you think the development of these players is hurting and needs to be corrected right away.

Spencer's style is to have players play very specific roles on the pitch and he likes to play a very direct version of football. This is probably not a bad thing for a young team but it does limit creativity somewhat.  Still, when Nagbe has been given a free license to be creative he has not been able to be the creative playmaker in the midfield, so I don't really think that is the problem.  What then is?  Not sure. I would have been more patient I think.

As for the Timbers, the aftermath has been pretty interesting to watch.  The Dallas debacle was instructive: players really seemed to sort themselves.  One player who I have maligned in the pans, and who has really started to play his best football, is Franck Songo'o.  He is finally starting to assert himself on the field and put in a full effort.  Well done.  Eric Alexander is a great player until he gets to the box where his shots are, face it, terrible and his passing uninspired.  If he can develop a shot he could really become a top notch player.  On the other hand, Jewsbury is looking a bit tired and old these days and is not the force in the midfield he was.  Palmer is a disaster - wins the ball well, but then rarely does anything useful.  And the new guy - Kimura - who was supposed to solve the right back problem is horrendous.  I liked Jack there better.  

Last night's exhibition was a lot of fun: you get to see a lot of the youngsters like Brent Richards (man that kid's got hops) and Ryan Kawulok.  Raw, but energetic.  The most instructive thing for me was that even though Aston Villa was not as adept at possession ball as Valencia (the previous exhibition), they still possessed the ball better and, especially, moved the ball faster than the Timbers.  The Timbers are still way too ponderous on the ball and way too static when one player is trying to dribble and break people down.

What I expect from the Timbers for the rest of the season we caught a glimpse of last night: playing compact, especially at the start there was only about 10 yards of space between each line of player. Playing youngsters more.  Within the compact team play allowing players more freedom to move out of position and interchange.  It'll be rough perhaps, but entertaining.

Soccernomics: Timbers Practice Facility and Field Size

Photo Credit: Bruce Ely / The Oregonian

Because it is Friday and Timbers game-day is tomorrow I shall cease to worry about the economy and its many woes and instead turn to much sunnier pursuits (especially tomorrow if the weather report is to be believed) - soccer!

So the Timbers unveiled their training facility to the media yesterday and it looks great.  I hope it will be a big help in recruiting and retaining players.  I was also delighted to read last week that they hired a conditioning coach as fitness seems to be a real problem for the Timbers - lack of energy late in games has been a killer.

Anyway the facility looks great and it seems to be a nice public/private partnership - as someone who plays soccer and who has two soccer playing boys, any new turf field in the Portland area is something to celebrate.  But I thought this passage from Geoff Arnold's story on the facility was incredible:

One of the highlights of the facility are the two full size soccer fields - a grass field designated for exclusive use by the Timbers and a second artificial turf field that will be used by the public. The dimensions of each practice field is the same - 70x110 yards - as Jeld-Wen Field.

The whole idea of a grass field is to be able to better prepare for playing the entire MLS away from home (with the exception of Seattle, Vancouver and New England who play on turf) just about all of whom have much bigger fields.  Why don't you have a practice grass field that is of similar dimensions to the actual pitches you'll be playing on?  Odd.  Though any pitch between 70 and 80 yards wide and 110 and 120 yards long is within FIFA regulations, the modern standard is 75 x 115.  Almost all new stadiums built for soccer are using this standard.  Of course the Timbers have opted to make their pitch as small as is allowed by FIFA.  Doesn't sound like a lot but the difference is 12% more space to play in, which is a lot.

What is also interesting is that you hear a lot about how the Timbers want to utilize their speed to their advantage.  But this completely contrary to the size of their pitch.  With such a small area in which to work there just aren't the spaces to run on to.  Now, you can be like the Arsenal of the late 1990s and 2000s, who played on a tiny pitch at Highbury but played a quick passing game which the present day Timbers are trying to emulate.  But this is speed in a very different sense (quick passing and movement in confined spaces and quickness of thought) and requires a supremely high degree of technical ability.  Most importantly it requires exceptionally talented and creative midfielders like Pires, Fabregas and Ljungberg and a withdrawn striker of the Dennis Bergkamp type.  Just watch tomorrow how slowly the Timber switch the ball through the back or through the midfield and you'll see what I am talking about.

In fact most teams that play on a small pitch play a compact defensive style that relies on counter-attacks.  Stoke City famously shrunk their pitch to be able to compete better in the Premiership with a team of limited skill and flair so it is interesting that the Timbers are trying to emphasize skill and flair and yet maintain a tiny little pitch.  Perhaps it is possible to end up playing the Arsenal way in Portland, but I doubt the ability of an MLS team to be able to pay enough to attract a critical mass of players at that level.  I think we are already seeing how a Franck Songo'o, who possesses great technical ability, could end up at the Timbers after a trial: his play and passion are seemingly very inconsistent - at least so far.  Too early to judge, but...

I have accepted that grass is just not going to work at Jeld-Wen but I fail to understand the Timbers dogged insistence on such a small field.  But this is all an exercise in nit-picking.  The Timbers are great the stadium is great and it is great to have them in MLS.  Let's hope they can put in a great performance tomorrow and get back to winning ways.

A Timbers Dilemma

The New York Red Bulls will be making their Portland debut this Sunday and what is an Arsenal and Timbers supporter to do??  For the Arsenal legend, Thierry Henry, is coming but in a Red Bulls uniform.

Henry is the all time leading goalscorer for the Arsenal and was a member of two Premiership winning teams including the 'invincibles' of the 2003-2004 season that did not lose a single game.  Of course, I will root for the Timbers to win the match, but I can't help but cheer for Henry.

The match itself should be very interesting.  The Timbers lost again last weekend, but to the current MLS champions the Colorado Rapids, and though the end result was a disappointment there is no doubt in my mind that the Timbers played their best game at Jeld-Wen and made a huge turnaround from the terrible performance they gave against DC United.  They were playing out from the back instead of punting it up, trying to move the ball and keep possession, Chara was (finally) actively trying to get forward and get involved in the attack and the entire team seemed to have better movement and energy.

But the Red Bulls are a dangerous and talented team and are a real test.  However they are missing some key players thanks to the Gold Cup: Rafa Marquez is on duty for Mexico and Tim Ream and Juan Agudelo are on duty with the US squad.  Thus the Timbers have a chance to catch a depleted side, but they will have to be very careful with Henry.  Even at 33 he is a class above and capable of scoring from all over the pitch.

Should be a blast!

Soccernomics: Size Matters Redux

Emirates Stadium - Home of the Arsenal

I see the Timbers are getting a little touchy about the size of their field:

Portland are 5-1 in league play at their home. And yet, over the past month, a couple of opposing coaches have publicly taken issue with JELD-WEN Field’s size and suggested that it plays into the Timbers’ favor.

“The pitch, because it’s a little bit too small, when you watch the games they played at home, it’s a little pinball,” Philadelphia Union coach Peter Nowak told local reporters prior to the May 6 game in Portland. “[The Timbers] press the other team, and we’ve got to figure out a good plan for that.”

Too small?

At 70 yards wide, 110 yards long, the pitch at JELD-WEN Field is FIFA certified and meets the governing body’s guidelines as well as those of MLS. Field dimensions are not fixed from one pitch to the next and are a bit like Major League Baseball ballparks in that sense.

The oldest club in English Premier League soccer, Stoke City, play in a stadium with exactly the same dimensions as JELD-WEN. Do other EPL teams complain that it is too small?

Less than two weeks after Nowak brought it up, Columbus Crew coach Robert Warzycha chimed in with his thoughts on Portland’s success at home.

“More than anything, it’s the [artificial] turf and the field dimensions,” Warzycha told the Columbus Dispatch. “And the way they play at home. They’re scoring on set pieces.”

For the record, Portland did score on set pieces to beat both Philadelphia and Columbus. But was the size of the field really working against the opponent?

At JELD-WEN Field, the dimensions are dictated to some degree by the configuration of a stadium footprint that dates to 1926. It also has to do with sight lines for spectators. (From the press box, it is difficult to see the near touchline with out standing up.)

They doth protest too much.  Of course the quote from Ben Olsen that was in my last post was from the coach of a winning team so there is no suggestion of making excuses with him.

Anyway, what strikes me in all of this is the explanation that sight lines are to blame, but not from the stands mind, from the press box!  Are you serious?  You would shrink your field just so those in the press box don't have to stand up?!?  That is so lame.

And by the way, bringing up Stoke City is neither here nor there, but since they did, there is a big difference between the level of play in the Premier League and the MLS for one, and for two Stoke City is grass so the size is not amplified by a fast bouncy plastic surface.  I don't believe that any other Premier League team has a pitch smaller than the 75x110 yards (the modern stadium standard).  Arsenal did have a Jeld-Wen size field and used to be known for cynical defensive football, but then Arsene Wenger came in and instilled a possession, quick passing style of play utilizing world class players who could pull it off.  Still, when they built their new stadium they went to 75x115.

Just sayin'

Soccernomics: Size Matters

An interesting blog post from Steve Goff, the Washington Post soccer reporter, on the DC United win in Portland (which was a dismal affair with almost no quality soccer to speak of). For a while I have been raising the issue of the tiny field at Jeld-Wen, and mostly being chided for worrying about it. But my point - that a small turf field is not conducive to beautiful soccer - is being echoed now by those who are covering and playing the matches.

First, here is Goff himself wondering why (as I have) the field cannot be expanded by a couple of yards in all directions:

On Jeld-Wen Stadium’s narrow pitch, two assists came off throw-ins (by Chris Pontius and Jeremy Hall) and the Dejan Jakovic penalty came off a throw. On United’s final goal, Bill Hamid could’ve been credited with a secondary assist. The dimensions are listed at 110 yards long, 70 yards wide. Oddly, there seems to be ample room to expand the playing surface to a more suitable size. The Timbers have conformed well to these tight quarters, but the matches lack elegance.

"Lack elegance" is one (nice) way to put it... A couple of yards sounds like nothing right?  But the difference between 70 by 110 and 74 by 114 is 10% more playing area.  The international standard right now for new stadia is 75 by 115, I think Portland should work with the league to allow for slightly less room behind the goals and out of touch or else this type of ugly ping pong and punting soccer is going to be the norm. Here is Goff quoting DC United coach Ben Olsen who mentions the field:

“It was about dealing with set pieces, and that’s what this field is about. Unfortunately, that’s what it is. It’s not fun to come here and play because it’s tough to play soccer. It’s about getting the balls into the box, but that’s the reality when you come here. Historically, we have lost when the field is small, when it’s turf, when it’s a real gritty game. The guys today were fed up with that and showed that they can compete physically with any team in the league.”

The emphasis is mine. Note that he doesn't say it is tough to come and play against the Timbers or in front of the Army, but that it is tough to actually play the game: control, passing, movement.  Instead what we get is a lot of punting the ball.

Ajax last wednesday showed that with players of enough quality you can play good soccer even on a small plastic field, but MLS is not up to this level yet and won't be for a long time.  I think this is a real potential problem for the business that is Portland Timbers.  Folks are not going to continue to spend money and time going out to the stadium and watching the match on TV if the game is going to be so sloppy and dull.

Soccernomics: Does it Pay to be Professional? Timbers Salaries

Ever wonder what soccer players (not named Beckham and Henry) get for playing professionally in the MLS?  Well, here are the Timbers salaries this year (you can find all MLS salaries here).  I know that the order and formatting is terrible, but being a man of an advanced age, this is about as good as my technological abilities get.  Actually and more to the point: the opportunity cost of doing more than this quick clip is too high.

For me the best value-for-money by far is Kalif Alhassan who is my vote for MVP at this point in the season.  The worst is probably Kevin Goldthwaite who has not seen much action and doesn't look to see much more as well as Futty is playing.

The Timbers, by the way, have the lowest payroll in the league:

Unforgettable

From start...

...to finish

An amazing night.

Soccernomics: Timbers as Economic Engine

Busy, so I'll I got is a suggestion to go and read this article at Oregon Business on the economic impact of the Timbers.  I have no idea whether the economic impact will be significant beyond the direct investment, but dang it will be fun!

Friday Nonsense: Timbers Edition

I am back from Brazil and facing a ton of work, chores, holiday preparation and on top of it all my 9 year old broke his nose on Wednesday playing soccer.  Sigh.  So thus commences the superfluous blogging!

And since we have mentioned it, let's talk about my favorite pet subject: soccer.  This time the Timbers new uniforms (I refrained from saying kit for you anglophobes).  In a word: nice.  Classy, elegant, with some cute touches and I like the Arsenal style white sleeves.

Also big props for the alternate jerseys.  A lot of MLS teams just go with their color on one and white on the other mimicking other American pro sports, but soccer tradition is a lot different: alternate kits are generally some totally different color scheme and change every few years.  There are a few teams like Arsenal that have a traditional alternate color (in Arsenal's case it is yellow), perhaps we'll see the Timbers follow this tradition - let's hope so, the red for the rose city is inspired.  And there is no doubt in my mind where this came from: looking ahead to games at the Sounders, where the Timbers will have to change from the green, what better way to go than to have bright rose red for the Rose City team in Seattle?  Awesome.    

I have only one quibble about the whole thing: the Timbers crest should never, ever change, it should be green, even on the alternate jerseys, this is how every club does it.  But, then again, who cares, man?  Lets get winter over and the season started.  RCTID.

Soccernomics: Dumping

The Scot Thompson announcement go me thinking again about the Timbers and some of the economic decisions they have been making.  One thing that has interested me ever since the crest fiasco is what the Timbers would do with all of the launch merchandise.

A little background for the uninitiated: the Timbers, with much fanfare, unveiled their new logo this past summer.  Unfortunately, they had not kept the Timbers Army (TA) in the loop and the Army, the Timbers supporters group, hated it and let their hate be known loudly and clearly.

The Timbers, to their credit, quickly met with the Army and made some subtle but significant changes to the logo.  I have posted the before and after above.

Of course, in anticipation of the launch, the Timbers ordered an avalanche of merchandise.  And why not, it doesn't have a sell-by date, so making sure you have enough on hand is important.  Ex post, however, they had a real conundrum: tons of suddenly obsolete merchandise waiting to be sold.

I assumed that they would just eat the loss and that soon poor people across Africa would suddenly be wearing the original Timbers logo along with their new Texas Rangers World Series Champions gear.  But no, the Timbers apparently decided that the changes they made were small enough that the original merchandise was just fine.  So they kept on selling it (without any disclaimer) on their web-site and in stores like Sports Authority.

At first this might have been because they didn't have updated merchandise to replace it, but now, it is well clear that they intend to get whatever money they can for the original stuff and withhold the new stuff until they are able to offload as much as the old stuff as they can.

I say this because I watched new logo merchandise slowly creep in to their on-line store alongside the old stuff, but it was never exactly replacement merchandise.  Then, all of a sudden, all of the new logo stuff was completely removed and they are currently only selling the original logo stuff, but now at a deep discount.  One suspects that they are trying for one last push to get the old stuff out the door before they dump it completely.

I got a t-shirt for the boy about a week before the new logo was released.  The Timbers store told me they would gladly exchange the shirt once new logo shirts were in.  They expected them months ago and I suspect they have had them that long.  For us it is a moot point, they boy likes and has already practically worn out the shirt.  

As an economist I have no problem with the strategy save for the part where they don't explicitly explain to the punters what they are buying.  The market can decide how much the original stuff is worth, and it is worth something, but in order to do so, full information is necessary.   I also don't like the holding back of the new stuff so that people like me can't or don't bother to exchange.  Seems a little nickel and dime.

I find it curious that they wouldn't just dump it all and start fresh, however, diluting the marketplace with an old brand is odd I think given the magnitude of the investment in what they hope will be a long running brand in Portland.  But then, the Timbers have shown themselves to be shrewd businesspeople and so I reserve judgement. I don't know if there is a blueprint for this type of thing, but I have to admit it smacks just a little bit of greed.  I mean, how much money could we really be talking about?  Is it really worth it in the long run?

A Class Act

Scot (with one T ;-) ) Thompson announced yesterday that he was retiring.  Read Geoffrey Arnold's nice article about Scot to get a sense of his background and who he is as a person.  I can add to this personally as a father of a son who has participated in a Timbers soccer camp Scot ran.  Scot was gracious, warm, engaging and great with the kids.  And while the other players there were good spirits, you could tell their hearts were not totally into hosting a bunch of kids for a day.  Scot, by contrast, really made the extra effort, seemed genuinely enthusiastic about having the kids around, and you could see the kids respond immediately to his enthusiasm and warmth.  I left with a decent impression of the Timbers but with a fantastic impression of Scot.

If the Timbers have any sense at all, they will make sure Scot stays a part of the organization, he is a class act.

Meanwhile in Seattle

Nice.  This is in the proximity of Qwest Field, but a bit far south on 4th Ave.  Not the most expensive billboard in Seattle, but it does the trick.  Too funny.

Soccernomics: Timbers Sponsor and MLS TV Ratings

Good and bad news on the soccer front:

First the good: the Timbers have just announced that Alaska Airlines will be their shirt sponsor (i.e. the company whose logo will grace the front of their shirts) when they become an MLS franchise.

Considering only about half of MLS teams have a shirt sponsor, this seems significant.  Obviously Alaska Airlines thinks that the team will garner enough media attention (especially in the Northwest) to warrant the investment.  This is in stark contrast to the new Philadelphia MLS franchise that still does not have such a sponsor.  The Timbers still have the stadium naming rights to sell as well, so economically speaking the Timbers are off to a pretty good start, which doesn't surprise me as from what I can tell Paulson has assembled a first-class front office.

Now the bad: according to the Sports Business Daily, MLS is struggling with TV ratings.

"MLS games on ESPN2 are averaging 257,000 viewers for 18 telecasts through Aug. 17, down 9.5% from 284,000 viewers through the same period last year (17 telecasts) and down 10.1% from the same period in '08 (16 telecasts)."

Given that attendances are up this year and another major TV market was added to the league, there is no way to sugarcoat this news.  It is terrible.  Modern professional sports are all about TV these days and you would hope that MLS would be making progress.  ESPN is doing better at promoting the games and even mentioning them once and a while on SportsCenter.  A big reason for the expansion push was to increase the TV footprint.  It is a work in progress but the movement is in the wrong direction.

Which brings up an interesting economics question: are domestic MLS games and the World Cup complements or substitutes? There was the thought that the World Cup would raise interest in soccer in general and that this would spill over to the MLS once it was over.  But this hasn't happened.  Perhaps then people got their soccer fix early in the summer and now have no use for more.  Or they saw what top class soccer looks like and noticed that MLS still has a ways to go to match that level of play.

And speaking of level of play, the NY Red Bulls with Rafa Marquez, Thierry Henry and Juan-Pablo Angel suddenly look like a top class and classy team.  Beautiful to watch.

Timbers and Spencer

Through a serendipitous twist of fate I found myself attending the press conference to unveil John Spencer as the new Timbers manger at the Adidas HQ today.  I went more to witness the spectacle than anything else and it was fun to witness a little part of the birth of the team.  It was also fun to check out the Adidas HQ a little bit.  Pretty snazzy as you might imagine.  My favorite bit was the elevator that had 1 and G.  At the end a few people got off on 1 and immediately realized their error.  "Ah, of course, a European style elevator!" one person then said.  Funny.

The little conference room and hospitality area has the entire collection of Adidas world cup balls, starting with one of the most iconic sports designs ever: the hexagonal, black-and-white, Telstar.  It remains the look of soccer balls in any graphic you'll find, including the MLS logo.

Anyway, here is the press conference if you are interested.  No news content at all, just nice platitudes and vague language about playing hard and attractive soccer.  The best bit is when Spencer was asked about flipping off fans who insulted Brian Ching when he was cut from the US World Cup squad.  And you got to love Spencer's Glaswegian brogue.

I think he'll be a great manager.

Portland Timbers introduce John Spencer

Timbers Name Spencer New Coach for MLS

A very good choice: Scotsman John Spencer.  I had the good fortune of watching the arrival of Spencer to the MLS when I lived in Denver.  His affect on the team was immediate: he brought a hard-charging, intense, never-give-up attitude and new energy to a lackluster team.  He was only one of 11 but his presence on the field changed the team entirely.

He is but a wee lad but a true professional and I expect will accept nothing but full effort from his players.  I, personally, cannot think of a better choice.  Kudos.

Econ 101: Price Discrimination Redux

It occurs to me that one reason current Timbers season ticket holders snapped up the $99 tickets is this: many of them are probably Timbers Army folks who surmised - rightly - that there will be plenty of TA section tickets available when the general public gets to buy tickets and who also surmised - possibly correctly, we'll see - that if they bought $99 season tickets, they could resell them for a lot more than face value.

In other words, the $99 tickets were an arbitrage opportunity: buy them now and buy the regular TA section tickets later (it is general admission so it doesn't matter when you purchase them).  Then sell the $99 tickets later for more money.

Methinks the TA folks knew a good opportunity when they saw it...

RCTID!

Soccernomics: New Timbers Crest, Take 2

Now that I have commented about it a couple of times I am kinda locked in to commenting once again (and hopefully for the last time) about the Timbers sudden and abrupt re-jiggering of their new crest.  In case you missed the drama, the Timbers, with lots of pomp and circumstance, introduced their new MLS crest in Director Park, during halftime of the USA-England match.  [Weird to think of the hype now, after both sides were revealed to be decidedly mediocre]  The unveiling did not go well. A vocal group of Timbers Army-types announced their displeasure almost immediately with a profanity laced chant.  Classy.

Here was the original version:

Timbers Army types hated it - but special ire was directed at the axe, which, with the shading and detail, was derided as 'cartoonish.' In fact I got a comment on this blog directing me to a Facebook page dedicated to getting the Timbers to change it. No way in heck, thought I, will the Timbers touch it. To me it represented the Timbers trying to stay in touch with the roots of the team (in reality these roots are entirely erzatz, I mean come on, resurecting ther mame for a second division franchise is not the same thing as having a long-standing team).  I was equivocal about it, but my initial reaction was that the shading on the axe was bad.  In fact it was especially bad when the secondary color was produced as yellow which it was a lot at first. In fact, I thought that the Timbers did this intentionally to ease the transition away from yellow. If so, this was a mistake, because the axe shading works much better in the moss green that is the actual secondary color.  In fact the first logo started growing on me and my eight year old son eagerly grabbed a new t-shirt and has worn it proudly:

Which I think, in the dark/light green colors, looks pretty snazzy. Not at all classic like I prefer, but then it is not about me, and I can be objective.

Next thing you know the Timbers abruptly cave to the Timbers Army and announce the newly redesigned new logo:

Which seems to me an improvement in some ways - the logo is a bit cleaner and simpler - but essentially unchanged, save for the axe which has no detail at all. And now, I am not so sure which I prefer. [What I am sure about is that I am pissed off that I spent $20 on a temporary logo shirt for the boy - I await word about what they are going to do with people like me] The boy hates the new logo compared to the old one, which makes sense to me - the old one seemed more geared to the younger set.  The new one feels less logo-y and more crest-y so I guess if I saw the two and had to pick I'd pick the new one, but it sure has the feel of a compromise - a fully realized design tweaked at the last minute.  I thought a good compromise would have been a refreshed original logo as a secondary crest.  And if you are going to redesign it, you should start from scratch.  So in then end, I think the Timbers should have stuck to their original design and, like Arsenal, the fury would have quickly subsided.

I don't know whether to think the Timbers should be applauded for reposinding to the criticism or if this portends something worse - letting the Timbers Army have too much agency over the team's business decisions. The Timbers should have involved the Army in the design process from the get-go, for sure,  and they blundered on the public unveiling because they didn't.  And the Timbers Army has every right to express their opinion and they matter a lot - a successful MLS Timbers need them.  But come on, is this new new logo so different that before the world was ending and now everything is sunshine and light?  No.  [And of course, lots of folks still hate it]

The fact is that the Timbers Army are great and a big reason that soccer in Portland is unique, but they too often act like adolescents and are going to have to clean up their act if the Timbers are going to be a successful MLS team. Profane chanting in a public square? - c'mon, that is totally bush league. The Timbers are going to have to fill a lot of expensive seats and families don't always like sitting and listening to chanted obscenities for two hours.  So there is going to have to be a middle ground here and I know the Timbers Army feel ownership of the team right now, but they are going to have to learn to share.

So that's all soccer, where is the 'nomics? Well, the Timbers are in the always sticky situation of trying to attract new customers while still keeping the loyal ones happy.  Remember New Coke?  I didn't think so.  There is an additional pitfall when part of the allure of being a customer is that you are part of a small club.  It is similar to a popular underground band that hits big.  All of a sudden some of of the utility customers got from consuming the band's music disappears as part of the fun was knowing about a band only a few others did as well.  Lots of big time companies have trouble with this, so it does not surprise me that the Timbers have too.  A little more inclusion before and a little more spine after would seem to have been a better strategy.

Oh, and as far as merchandise, the Timbers are trying to have it both ways: hawking the old stuff without explicitly disclosing than change.  In fact if you go to their website the front page has the redesigned logo but the merchandise page has the original new logo with lots of gear to match. [UPDATE: They fixed the logo on the store page - good job - but still show merchandise withe the old logo and no explanation] This is not cool.  This seems to me like something awfully close to fraud - deliberately trying to mislead.

New Timbers Crest

Though here is the logo as it appears on a t-shirt - clearly light green rather than yellow as the second color. The light green is, in my opinion much easier on the eye:

So is it good? What do you think? Me I am ambivalent. Not the worst ever but not what I would have chosen - something more traditional.  Overall,  ho-hum. I like the light green much better than the yellow - especially where it adds highlights to the axe- though I think traditionalists will disagree.

Soccernomics: Crests and the Economic Value of a Good Logo

Just because I have posted on this before I thought I had better follow-up, though even I am weary of too much soccer despite the worlds biggest sporting event being only a few days off.

The Vancouver Whitecaps have released their new MLS crest (as seen above).  Pretty boring in my opinion but, and more importantly, inoffensive. [See my earlier post on MLS crests if you care to witness the horrors of earlier logos]  Interesting that they are going for the FC label - seems to be de rigueur these days.  I have no problem with it - but how about someone bucking the trend and going all American with an SC?

Meanwhile the Timbers will be unveiling their new crest on Saturday at Director Park during the halftime interval of the USA - England match being shown on a big screen there.  To get people worked up into logo frenzy thay have released a series of four teaser videos with clues to the new crest.  In them, they have revealed that the new crest will: one, be round; two, have an axe that 'escapes' the confines of the circle; three, have three chevrons; four, be dark green and light green.  So there you go.

Everything fine as far as it goes, but the light green makes me nervous. "Loud and bold" according to the Timbers.  Sounds like it is to replace the yellow so I imagine will be a bit yellow-green, but hopefully nothing neon-ish like the Sounders' nightmarish green which appears to be a way to keep the colors close to the Seahawks and to their current sponsor, XBOX.

But it got me wondering, just how big an economic gamble is this?

Well, fortunately the Sports Business Journal has a recent article on the latest addition to the MLS, the Philadelphia Union (new crest: OEB approved).

Seattle Sounders FC may not be an expansion team any more, but they still lead MLS in merchandise sales.

The Sounders’ continued success combined with strong sales of Philadelphia Union merchandise have combined to drive double-digit percentage increases in MLS merchandise sales this year. Sell-throughs of MLS merchandise at large retail partners such as Dick’s Sporting Goods have been strong, allowing MLS to set a record for the first quarter for merchandise sales, said Stu Crystal, MLS vice president of consumer products.

...

The club has already sold seven figures worth of merchandise and is expected to hit eight figures by the end of the year. It is enjoying 90 percent sell-through on core items such as replica jerseys and scarves.

“It’s been an incredible shot in the arm for our business,” Crystal said. “There’s a lot of competition with other teams in Philadelphia, but fans have been gobbling up their merchandise.”

Crystal credited the team’s logo as being a major factor in sales. [Emphasis mine] The club incorporated a rattlesnake from the famed “Don’t Tread on Me” flag into its shield. It was an image that its largest supporters group, the Sons of Ben, had used in their campaign to get an MLS franchise.
“The merchandise … is some of the hottest-selling gear for the MLS right now,” said Steve Sterhan, soccer category manager for Adidas America. “We are only five weeks into the season, and retailers are reporting double-digit sell-though.” 

So the answer is that it is pretty big business in general, but still how much does a good logo matter over a bad logo? Or in economics terms, what is the marginal value of a good logo? Crystal suggests it matters a lot, but you can't really test these things. Portland is a smaller market than Philly but has less sports competition, so I would imagine similar sales. Let's go with the eight digit floor of $10 million. If a good logo increases that by 10% we are talking real money and that is only in the first year - the present discounted marginal value of a good logo could easily reach eight figures itself.  Hmmm...let's hope Merritt and the rest of the Timbers management chose wisely.

Soccernomics: Kits

The Oregonian has a nice article on the huge push Nike has made over the last 10 - 15 years to become a major player in soccer, once dominated by Adidas.  But the article does contain one absolute howler of a mistake that exposes how far the general population of the US still has to come:

At the World Cup this year, Nike will sponsor nine teams --its most ever -- including the United States, the United Kingdom, Portugal and Holland.

United Kingdom!?! Dear oh dear oh dear.  Please don't let anyone in Scotland and England (not to mention Wales and N. Ireland) know that Nike has overruled FIFA has forced them to compete as one country. As far as England are concerned, the new Umbro strip is fantastic, a classic look harkening back to their lone world cup triumph in 1966.

Speaking of harkening back to history.  Nike has also given a nod to a strange moment in world soccer history in the new US world cup strip.  In 1950, the US beat England in Belo Horizonte, Brazil by the score of 1 - 0.  England was a dominant power then and the US team was a bunch of part-time amateurs, but funny things happen in soccer.

They wore shirts with a sash on the front and Nike (as seen in this picture) and Nike has reproduced this look for the world cup.  This is fitting given that the first US match in South Africa will be against the England squad.

One final interesting point on the local front: the Timbers are currently outfitted by hometown Nike, but Adidas has the contract to outfit the entire MLS.  So, as things stand, when the Timbers make the move up they will switch to Adidas uniforms.

The current uniform is now sponsored by SolarWorld, by the way, making for a nice little green economy tie-in with he local team dressed, appropriately, in green.

And, yes, this was a post about, basically, nothing.