Fred Thompson: Once More on Taxes, Oregon and Economists

Note, this document with tables and was long and complicated to plunk directly into the blog, so I had to resort to Scribd.  


Fred Thompson checks in with some final thoughts on the tax battles...

Fred Thompson 4/6/10

We Interrupt Your Normal Programming...

...to bring the news that it's one-nil to the Arsenal!

Yikes!  Barca leveled it up before I could even finish the post.  Messi, the dude with the tiny little legs and the most amazingly quick snap-shot, did it again.

1-1

I am, of course, talking about the Champions League.

Oh dear, Messi again: 2-1 Barcelona.


Wow, is there anyone even remotely as good as Lionel Messi in the world?  Could he be the difference at this summer's World Cup?  He has his hat trick in the first half and Barca are 3-1 up. 


Now, just because he can, he scores a fourth through the goalkeeper's legs.  Bravo. 


Well if it isn't going to be Arsenal, I'll be rooting for Barca - brilliant football.  

Beeronomics: Foyston on Ninkasi

Benjamin Brink/The Oregonian

Just a note to guide you to John Foyston's piece in today's Oregonian on Ninkasi.  Some highlights:

Last year, Ninkasi brewed 18,000 barrels of beer (558,000 gallons) and graduated from microbrewery -- making up to 15,000 barrels a year, as defined by the Brewers Association, a national trade group -- to regional brewery, joining the likes of Rogue Ales, Full Sail, Widmer, BridgePort and Deschutes.

...

This year, Floyd said, Ninkasi is on track to nearly double last year's total and brew as much as 32,000 barrels -- nearly a million gallons of beer.

That kind of growth can spell trouble, said Paul Gatza of the Colorado-based Brewers Association; he's seen it happen before.

"They really seem to be doing something right," he said, "but plant capacity becomes a real holdback to that kind of growth rate -- it's very unusual for a brewery to be able to sustain a growth of more than about 10,000 barrels a year."

But, thanks to the left-brain/right-brain partnership between Floyd -- the creative, charismatic brewery frontman -- and Ridge -- the financial and planning wizard who spent his college summers interning on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange -- Ninkasi is ready.

...

Butenschoen said that Floyd also saw a wide-open market in Eugene for a production brewery and that the outcome would've been very different had they started a brewpub.

"If you're a brewpub, you're often seen as competition by other pubs and restaurants, and they're not likely to put your beers on tap."

A few thoughts: First, I was fascinated by Ninkasi's business model from the start. The standard modus operandi of new Oregon craft brewers these days is to start a brewpub. The state makes it easy with a special license from OLCC and the food side helps on the revenue front.  But restaurants are hellishly difficult beasts to do well and concentrating so much on the restaurant can inhibit your ability to get the beer out of the door.  Ninkasi started by doing its own distribution of its kegs to restaurants and bars and thus was able to capture all of the revenue themselves to start (and maybe offer it more cheaply?) - and were able to get an astonishing number of taps quickly (fantastic beer helps a lot too...).  Anyway, it is interesting what they say about the perceived competition of brewpubs versus breweries.

Second, Ninkasi from the start mastered the art of the new social media: Facebook pages, Twitter feeds, etc.  These days, among the youngsters at least, this is a low cost and very effective way to get yourself known.  Ninkasi has been more active on this front than any other brewery I am aware of.

Third, they are apparently ready to start packaging in 12oz six-packs.  For this I say hooray.  Big beers in big bottles are difficult for a wee economist whose wife is not really a beer drinker.  

Oregon Education

The Oregonian had a scathing editorial this weekend about the states sorry attempt at 'Race for the Top' funds.  One wonders why there is not more heat on Susan Castillo, the mostly under the radar State Superintendent of Public Instruction?  The Oregonian does not even mention her name - why not?  Should there be?  I don't know enough to say, but one wonders why there is not more talk about her role in this process.  I do know that Race to the Top includes lots of money for data collection and analysis and that Oregon is collecting, but were is the analysis?  I would like to know more about all this before election time...ah, but wait, we don't have a press corps anymore!  So will all those bloggers who cheer the demise of the the mainstream media please start reporting...?  

Betsy Hammond, are you listening, can you tell us what is going on behind the scenes?

In a similar vein, PPS is going full steam on high school restructuring knowing almost nothing really about the effects of small vs. big schools.  A lot of good sounding sound bite bromides are not enough.   I have a suggestion: take a look at all of the school transfer lottery winners and losers over the last ten years and see if the winners did systematically better than the losers when they switched form smaller to bigger schools.  There are a whole host of residual problems with a study like this, but it would at lest give us a sense about school effects vs. socio-economic and other effects.  Heck, give me the data and I'll do it for you - free.

Beeronomics: A Night at Upright

 

Okay, so maybe I am a "beer economist" after all turns out it is working out pretty nicely for me.  I was, for the first time, invited to a media preview event involving beer. Ezra and Alex of Upright Brewing did me the honor of inviting me to the 1-year Anniversary and Four Play release media preview and I had an altogether delightful time attending, tasting the wonderful beer, chatting about the business of beer and meeting many folks that make up the beer-o-sphere for the first time.

Since my readers are mostly not regulars in the beer-o-sphere I suspect, a little background on Upright is in order.  Perhaps the best introduction from the early days is Jeff's.  It is located in the basement of the Leftbank project and focuses on Belgian-inspired farmhouse ales.  Upright's owner and brewer Alex Ganum is a Belgian beer enthusiast, but it was my impression that he was more a fan of the Belgian brewing ethos than the specific style (as much as there is one - see: ethos).  He brews beers in the Belgian tradition but is inspired by local ingredients and uses mostly Willamette Valley grains and hops.  He also uses the tricky open fermentation method and his house yeast is a curious beast - but I am getting ahead of myself.  For a while Upright's beers were only to be found on tap, but now they are turning up in such places as New Seasons in the bottle. The standard line up includes the delightful Four, the more robust Five and the darker Six.

Upright will be a trend-setter, I believe.  The number of breweries that start up, produce a hoppy pale, a very hoppy IPA and so on are myriad - Upright represents a clear break from the trend and a local beer that is truly unique and representative of an entirely different type of beer.  I'll talk about those beers in a future post, but different than most of the beer writers/bloggers in attendance I was interested in the economics of the industry and the niche that Alex occupies.

Brewing such an open style can be a tricky business proposition. Using open fermenters adds some risk to the whole endeavor (though Alex doesn't apparently think it ads much) and building and maintaing a climate controlled and sterile room is expensive.  So in a business sense, Alex is banking on people appreciating his efforts, being able to tell when tasting the beer and being willing to pay a small premium for it.  It is thus unlikely that many other places in the US would support such efforts (though I may be selling other beer communities short).  Alex also uses a yeast that is amazingly hungry but remarkably slow.  It takes weeks for the yeast to go through the primary fermentation stage, and then it just keeps on going during secondary fermentation and in the bottle or keg (so when it goes out the door, he is not entirely sure what it will be like upon opening/taping).  Keeping the beer around for weeks upon weeks is costly and not being able to completely control precisely the finished product is a risk that most business people like to avoid.  I am tempted to make the comparison to wine production, but the dirty little secret there is how much wineries can manipulate the final product with additives.  Not so here.  This just shows you how different this type of truly craft brewing differs from industrial brewing where the bottom line rules and the product is never, ever supposed to taste any different.  Alex admits that it tests his devotion to his yeast, but he hasn't lost faith yet.

The other interesting thing about Alex's yeast is how efficient it is in the end: it eats just about all of the available sugar.   Most yeast in the beers we regularly enjoy will achieve 70-75% attenuation, but the good Brothers Widmer analyzed the yeast in the lab (and did so pro-bono - cheers Widmers!) and found that Alex's was achieving up to 97% attenuation. Wow.  Jeff has a nice post on the implications of the yeast in the brewing process.

I had a chance to ask Alex the question that I find most interesting: how do you decide on price?  I like this question because for a standard business the textbook answer is clear: you charge the price that maximizes profit.  But in this business - with experience goods and where price is a signal of quality - you want to be careful about what price says about your product.  Alex talked about the 'right' price and I don't know what was in his head but this was my interpretation.  For example, you might think a new brewery would think about pricing very cheaply to get people to try the product so that they could learn about the quality, but doing so might leave the impression that it is not a quality beer (otherwise how could it be so cheap?).

I'll post on the beer later, but for now, it is definitely worth your while seeking out the beer - perhaps the good folks at Taplister (one of whom, Kerry, I met that night) can help you out.  I have seen bottles in New Seasons and I have a suspicion that Belmont Station and the Beermongers might also have a bottle or two in stock.  They are also now at the Portland Farmers Market so you can find yourself some tomorrow while you are there.  You will not be disappointed.  Cheers.

Tax Burden by State

Click on the graph to go to an interactive version.



This was created by Catherine Rampell of The New York Times

US Unemployment: Finally, Some Truly Good News

The US added 162,000 jobs in March and even when accounting for the large number of jobs provided by the Census, there were still well over 100,000 new jobs.  The fact that the unemployment rate didn't budge from 9.7 percent is not unexpected - new jobs bring job seekers back into the job market - and it will start to budge if this level of job gains can be sustained.  If it can be sustained is a real question at the moment, but a big headline job gain helps inspire confidence in financial markets, businesses and households and from this confidence the recovery will build momentum.  But, like a 100 car freight train, it takes a lot of juice to get it moving - in other words, it will be a slog for some time to come.  

Beeronomics: Beer-no-nomics

It is April 1 and traditionally this would be the moment for a witty, clever April Fool's joke, but I am neither witty nor clever so I'll just amuse myself with an entirely frivolous post on beer.

Deschutes has jumped on the Cascadian Dark Ale bandwagon with Hop in the Dark (pictured).  The label was designed by the brother of a friend of mine and is, by association, fantastic.  Seriously, it is cool. I am not a huge fan of the CDA or Dark IPA style - I personally find the roasty notes and the floral hop notes in conflict and they don't sing on my tongue as much as argue - but I'll try Deschutes' version as if someone is going to get it just right, more often than not it'll be the Deschutes folks.

Speaking of cool labels, you have to check out Ezra's label for Upright's forthcoming Four Play.  You'll get a chance for a first look at the release party on April 9th (more on that tomorrow).

For me the spring kicks off the season of wonderful, floral, hoppy pale beers that are my favorites.  One great seasonal out right now is Full Sail's Hop Persuit, a real throw-back (in Jeff Alworth's words) by John Harris: a simple pale, hoppy Northwest classic.  In the bottle it is good, but on tap (mine was at the Pilsner Room watching the NCAA tourney) it is transcendent.  Speaking of Harris and transcendency, the Pilsner Room had Slipknot Imperial IPA on cask when I was last there two weeks ago.  Sometimes these extra hoppy beers don't do well on cask because the underlying flavor characteristics that cask brings out are overwhelmed by the hops, but Slipknot on cask reveals itself to be an amazingly complex and, yes, even subtle beer with a vibrant hoppy nose.  Cask can often take away the singeing bitterness that can befuddle the tastebuds and this is true in this case.  Slipknot and Ninkasi's Tricerahops are two of the best cask beers I have ever had.  If you are fortunate enough to find them - get them.

Speaking of Ninkasi, in my never-ending pursuit to try new beers - and with a never-ending supply of new beers in Portland (and I really don't drink that much beer - I just like it to be great beer when I do) - I find myself going long stretches without drinking some of my favorites.  Thus it was recently that I picked up a bottle of perhaps my all-time favorite: Ninkasi's Total Domination. One sip and my immediate thought was "good god, why the hell am I drinking anything else?"  Oh lord it is good stuff.  Also recently I had a Hair of the Dog Blue Dot for the first time in an even longer time (it must be a couple of years)  and had a similar reaction.

Lastly, while in Seattle last week I picked up a bottle of Elysian's Avatar Jasmine IPA.  It is an IPA with dried jasmine flowers added to the boil.  If you want floral this is it, and while I enjoyed it I was a bit overwhelmed by the very strong jasmine flavor and nose.  A small glass was delightful but enough - a session beer this 'aint.  Still, nice to try something truly unique.

As today is probably the only nice day we will have had or will have in quite a few, perhaps it is a good opportunity to taste some spring beers after work...

Graph of the Day: Housing Booms and Busts (or Not)

Feel better? Didn't think so...

Economist's Notebook: Selection Claims Another Victim

The normally very reliable James Surowiecki of The New Yorker blunders badly this week in his column about thriving businesses that focus on the tops and bottoms of markets.  Here is his thesis:

Apple’s launch of the iPad next week is a gamble in more ways than one. To start with, it’s obviously a bet that there are millions of people looking for a new way to surf the Web, watch movies, and read magazines. But it’s also a more fundamental gamble; namely, that people will pay for quality. Starting at five hundred dollars, the iPad is significantly more expensive than its competitors. But Apple’s assumption is that, if the iPad is also significantly better, people will happily shell out for it (as they already do for iPods, iPhones, and Macs). That’s why when Steve Jobs first introduced the iPad he said that, if a product wasn’t “far better” than what was already out there, it had “no reason for being.

For Apple, which has enjoyed enormous success in recent years, “build it and they will pay” is business as usual. But it’s not a universal business truth. On the contrary, companies like Ikea, H. & M., and the makers of the Flip video camera are flourishing not by selling products or services that are “far better” than anyone else’s but by selling things that aren’t bad and cost a lot less. These products are much better than the cheap stuff you used to buy at Woolworth, and they tend to be appealingly styled, but, unlike Apple, the companies aren’t trying to build the best mousetrap out there. Instead, they’re engaged in what Wired recently christened the “good-enough revolution.” For them, the key to success isn’t excellence. It’s well-priced adequacy.

These two strategies may look completely different, but they have one crucial thing in common: they don’t target the amorphous blob of consumers who make up the middle of the market. Paradoxically, ignoring these people has turned out to be a great way of getting lots of customers, because, in many businesses, high- and low-end producers are taking more and more of the market. In fashion, both H. & M. and Hermès have prospered during the recession. In the auto industry, luxury-car sales, though initially hurt by the downturn, are reemerging as one of the most profitable segments of the market, even as small cars like the Ford Focus are luring consumers into showrooms. And, in the computer business, the Taiwanese company Acer has become a dominant player by making cheap, reasonably good laptops—the reverse of Apple’s premium-price approach

There is an obvious logical fallacy here: that because Apple and Acer are so successful, this must be a good segment to do business in. The problem with this reasoning is what economists call selection bias: you only see the success of the businesses that are the most successful.  Making inferences about the world based on survivors leads to misleading conclusions.  It is as if you arrive shortly after the great plague and saw only the survivors and thus concluded that the plague was not fatal.

And this is the whole problem. Sure there are outsized reward to being the very best - either the most advanced or the best at cost cutting - but the problem is there is only room for one at the top and bottom. Take Apple for example, it regained its mojo only when it started producing 'insanely great' stuff again. You think it is obvious to try and be the producer of the best smartphone? Just ask Palm how well that strategy is working.

The truth is that most firms are in the middle of the market and so competition there is fierce. Thus these firms do not have the outsized success of the outliers. But the winner-take-all nature of trying to capture either end of the price/quality spectrum suggests that the expected returns for that strategy are probably just about equal to the expected returns from competing in the middle. To understand if this strategy is so good you have to look at both the winners and the losers in the battle to be the best and cheapest.  Only then can you make reliable inference about the world.

In making this claim, Surowiecki falls into the common business literature pitfall: studying the winners and making general statements about their success. It is no surprise that he quotes consultants and not economists in this piece, economists obsess about selection issues.  Perhaps if he had asked one or two they could have prevented this embarrassing blunder...  ;-)

Portland Home Values: Case-Shiller January Numbers

Completely farmed out to the Wall Street Journal.  Portland and Seattle are down again and fairly significantly, they are two of the top four cities in terms of seasonally adjusted month to month changes, reflecting the unemployment situation on the two states.

Meanwhile, help is on the way: Oregon is one of five states to get special federal help for the housing market.  Oregon will get $88 million to help prevent foreclosures.

I still think we will see some bumping along, but no significant appreciation or depreciation this year.

The Trouble with Economics?

Little time on this first day of the Spring term, so I'll point to an interesting, but quite misguided critique of economics by David Brooks in The New York Times (which The Oregonian picked up last week) and a rebuttal from Greg Mankiw.  I think Greg's rebuttal is a little off the mark as well, sure we are not terribly good forecasters, but the point of Brooks' column was more about the construction of homo-economicus than the ability to forecast in my reading.  And this is where Brooks goes astray, for the economics view of humans responding to incentives is not nearly as mistaken as he would have you believe.  So, in general, we can say with some conviction that if the price of Coke goes up, Pepsi sales will improve to give but one example.  Where things get sticky is trying to predict an individual's precise behavior - for there are some who would not switch to Pepsi at any price.  What the discipline is working on, and making great progress by the way, is understanding common or mass exceptions to the rational behavior that we expect, and this is where the behaviorists have a lot to tell us.  But these are prominent economists working within the discipline, not critics from outside.  To me that is the hallmark of a healthy academic discipline.

Oregon Business, Taxes and The Oregonian

Earlier this week I was disturbed by the front page article in The Oregonian which insinuated that many Oregon businesses were soon to leave for he greener pastures of other states.  In fact, if you read the article, there was no story at all, some 'unnamed' business owner claiming to be on the verge of leaving but otherwise it was simply an article about businesses complaining about new taxes.  In fact, there was really no story at all, not one single company that is actually leaving.  And yet The Oregonian, perhaps to defend its own editorial position, deemed it worth of not only publication, but front page status.

Let's be clear, this was not a news story: this was an op-ed dressed up as a news story and The Oregonian need to keep its editorializing on the opinion page.

Still, I am on Spring Break and decided not to bother commenting.  Thankfully, Ben Jacklet, Managing Editor of Oregon Business magazine has done the work for me:

The Oregonian took the unusual step this morning of running a front-page business story about an unnamed executive, CEO of “a successful technology company southwest of Portland employing hundreds and boasting a bright future.”

Was he unnamed because he is participating in the witness protection program?

Hardly. He’s thinking of skipping town.

The gist of the story is that this phantom executive is considering gathering up his highly successful company and leaving Oregon, leading a devastating mass exodus of talent and capital, all because of the tax increases passed by the voters with Measures 66 and 67.

Well, here’s my own personal message to Mr. Phantom CEO: Don’t let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.

It’s not that I don’t care. I care deeply about the state of Oregon’s economy and would hate to see our job market deteriorate further. But the votes are in and the law is the law. And guess what? Oregon’s tax burden on businesses is far from the worst. It’s right there in the middle of the pack. Personal income tax is high, but that’s because Oregon has no sales tax. The end result is an imperfect but admirably progressive tax structure.

But it’s not the objective numbers that matter, apparently. “The far greater damage,” investor David Chen told the Oregonian, “is in how it disenfranchised business.”

Disenfranchised? Really? Did someone lose the right to vote?

Hardly. They just lost the vote. That doesn’t make you disenfranchised.

Now the states of Idaho, Utah, Montana and Ohio are joining our scavenger-like neighbors in Clark County and the grandstanding mayor of Chicago in welcoming Oregon businesses to move to greener pastures. The only problem is, their pastures aren’t greener, and their cities aren’t better for business. Anyone considering a move to any of those locations should consider the old adage that you get what you pay for. The winery tours aren't quite the same in Utah, and the Ohio Coast doesn't really compete with Oregon's.

My qualm with all of this after-the-vote crying of wolf is this: It does not help. As anyone who tracks real estate or the stock market understands, perception matters. Sending out apocalyptic messages that Oregon businesses are so fed up that they might even move to Idaho is not helpful. Vowing to take your hundreds of jobs and abandon the community that helped you build your company is not helpful either.

Especially if you don’t have the guts to sign your name to it.

My thoughts exactly.

Eco-nomics: Energy Efficient Buildings

Portland ranks 12th as a city for the energy efficiency of its commercial buildings.

Soccernomics: Crests

WARNING: SPRING BREAK USELESS POST AHEAD

What is an American Soccer team supposed to do, try to be distinctly American or nod to the traditions of Europe when it chooses a team crest? Soon the Timbers will have to decide: from the Meritt Paulson Q&A:

Q – Josh Thompson:
when are you going to release the new crest?

A – Merritt Paulson:
June

I favor the classic European look.

The history of the MLS is that most teams started with pretty horrendous American-style logos:

Then they slowly moved toward Europe and things got better. So, since nobody asked here is my guidance for the good folks at the Timbers when looking at current MLS crests:

GOOD:

(Though the name is atrocious)

OKAY:

OH GOD PLEASE NO:

As for the Timbers, the current/throwback crest needs to retire back to the 70s even though it is pretty cool:

The new version actually was headed in a good direction but then some slanting and waving sent it off course and it seems a bit unfinished:

Lets hope for something classic, but a little better than the Sounders managed to do. 

By the way, the timbers army has done a nice job with their new crest:

This is not a small decision, so I imagine a lot of market testing will go on.  I think the key is to test it among soccer fans, not random 8 year olds  - which is how I imagine the Clash and Burn logos above were decided upon (fire breathing horse! scorpion!! AWESOME!!!).  Given that Portland is perhaps the most traditional and tradition-rich club in the US, I am optimistic.

It is Finally Over...

The future of the Made in Oregon sign has been determined.

Thanks Randy...

UPDATE: My favorite libertarian, Jacob Grier, is unhappy the way the city grabbed control of the sign and how we now all get to pay for it.  I meant the "Thanks Randy" a bit ironically, as it is not clear we all really wanted to own the thing, but I do think restricting its commercial use, on public goods grounds, was appropriate, no different than how we regulate highway billboards (though in this case it is much more prominent).  Have a look at Jacob's take.  One thing is for sure, my kids will be happy that the red nose will reappear next winter. 

Econ 101: Recessions and Luxury Goods

Photo Credit: Doug Beghtel/The Oregonian

Saks Fifth Avenue is closing its two Pioneer Place locations.  Recessions are tough on purveyors of luxury goods - which economists define as goods on which you spend proportionally more on as incomes rise.  But this works both ways, you spend much less on them as incomes fall - they are often the first things to go out of the budget when belt-tightening is done.  And so Walmart thrives and Saks suffers as Oregonians average incomes plunge.  In fact, Saks is apparently close to inking a deal to open a "Saks off Fifth" discount store in Bridgeport Village.

But don't feel too badly for Saks, when the economy finally returns to robust growth, guess which sector of the retail trade will thrive?  

Health Care Bill

Here is Greg Mankiw on the health care bill:

Well, it appears certain that the healthcare reform bill will become law. One thing I have been struck by in watching this debate is how strident it has been, among both proponents and opponents of the legislation. As a weak-willed eclectic, I can see arguments on both sides. Life is full of tradeoffs, and so most issues strike me as involving shades of grey rather than being black and white. As a result, I find it hard to envision the people I disagree with as demons.

Arthur Okun said the big tradeoff in economics is between equality and efficiency. The health reform bill offers more equality (expanded insurance, more redistribution) and less efficiency (higher marginal tax rates). Whether you think this is a good or bad choice to make, it should not be hard to see the other point of view.

I like to think of the big tradeoff as being between community and liberty. From this perspective, the health reform bill offers more community (all Americans get health insurance, regulated by a centralized authority) and less liberty (insurance mandates, higher taxes). Once again, regardless of whether you are more communitarian or libertarian, a reasonable person should be able to understand the opposite vantagepoint.

In the end, while I understood the arguments in favor of the bill, I could not support it. In part, that is because I am generally more of a libertarian than a communitarian. In addition, I could not help but fear that the legislation will add to the fiscal burden we are leaving to future generations. Some economists (such as my Harvard colleague David Cutler) think there are great cost savings in the bill. I hope he is right, but I am skeptical. Some people say the Congressional Budget Office gave the legislation a clean bill of health regarding its fiscal impact. I believe that is completely wrong, for several reasons. My judgment is that this health bill adds significantly to our long-term fiscal problems.

The Obama administration's political philosophy is more egalitarian and more communitarian than mine. Their spending programs require much higher taxes than we have now and, indeed, much higher taxes than they have had the temerity to propose. Here is the question I have been wondering about: How long can the President wait before he comes clean with the American people and explains how high taxes needs to rise to pay for his vision of government?

This is as nice an explanation of the limits of economics as I have read on this issue. I am more confident that significant cost savings can be achieved by the way. I believe this because many countries achieve as good or better health outcomes as ours without spending nearly as much money as we do, so the savings are there, we just have to a better job getting the incentives right. But regardless, providing health care for is partly a moral issue and not just an economic one.

Media

Oops, should have posted this prior to my appearance, but alas it is spring break...

Here I am, trying desperately not to embarrass myself on "Live @ 7" last night.

Keeping Up With the Economy

The Wall Street Journal has this exceptional site, EconTracker, that is a compendium of economics statistics and indicators, along with charts and other wiz-bang gadgets.  It is a one-stop shop for those interested in the state of the economy.  Highly recommended.