I had stocked up on supplies, the kids schools were closed and we were all ready for the GREAT BLIZZARD of 2008. At 7 am, no snow, but soon we were assured a tremendous onslaught of the white stuff would descend. At 10 am a few flurries and some wind. By Noon, nothing. A few moments of wind and snow in the afternoon, but essentially nada. Dang it. I don't blame Portland Public Schools for closing I suppose, but geez, how could the forecast have been so wrong?
Now I know how most people feel about economists at this point in time (or perhaps in all points in time).
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Yesterday, my client who kept injecting politics into the engagements despite my best attempts to steer away, made an erroneous argument that is common among the American Right: "If we cannot predict the weather tomorrow, why are scientists so certain in predicting the weather 30 years from now." My polite response: they are different correlations, and what happens tomorrow is irrelevant to what happens in 30 years.
Convince yourself of the outcome first (preferably solidify your certainty with some old fashioned ideology), and you will always be able to find plenty of evidence to support your desired conclusions.
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