Fred Thompson reviews:
Hive Mind: How Your Nation’s IQ Matters So Much More than Your Own
By Garett Jones
(Stanford University Press, 2016)
Individual cognitive
ability scores aren’t good predictors of lifetime earnings. On average
individuals with high IQ scores earn about 60 percent more than the national
average. That premium is more or less constant over time and distance. But
nations with the highest scores are on average “about eight times more
prosperous than nations with the lowest scores” (p. 5, evidence in Chapter 2).
In Hive Mind, Garett Jones sets out to
explain why higher cognitive ability scores (which he argues in Chapter 1
reflects real underlying differences in skills) are so much more important for
collectivities than for individuals.
Human society is a
form of collective intelligence, in which the accumulated knowledge of the past
makes its members richer today, and in which the many small, daily cognitive
contributions of millions of their neighbors
– in offices, in factories, in the halls of government, and elsewhere –
help to make their lives better.... . Members of society all draw on that
collective intelligence, they all get benefits from the hive mind they never
pay for... (p. 12)
Jones doesn’t really tell where differences in cognitive
abilities come from. His story is mostly about why they matter. They matter
because higher because (p. 13):
1)
High scoring groups cooperate more effectively,
which is the key to making collective action more productive in all kinds of
enterprises, both by increasing throughput and by building capacity. (Chapter
5)
2)
High scoring groups work together better in
teams, which is critical to the performance of weakest-link, precision
activities – the kinds of activities that are characteristic of complex value
chains. (Chapter 7)
3)
High scoring groups are more patient and forward
looking. They save more and they invest more, not just in plant and equipment,
but also in organizational learning and technology. (Chapter 4)
4)
High scoring groups make better citizens and
sustain more effective polities. (Chapter 6)
5)
Cooperative, patient, well-informed groups
encourage their members to engage in cooperative, patient, information seeking
behavior. (Chapter 8)
At the same time, he insists that average cognitive ability
scores are increasing and that they can be improved (Chapter 3). The reason he
cannot tell us how best to do so is that there are far more plausible
explanations for increases in cognitive ability than there are observations
with which to test them. Consequently, his strongest conclusions have to do
with the provision of basic public health and nutrition. He’s moderately
hopeful for education as well, but only where students are physically present,
have access to books, and teachers teach. As he notes, years of formal
schooling is only weakly associated with cognitive abilities, whereas the
association between measured learning and cognitive ability is quite strong. Of
course, the causal arrow could go either way, but Jones plausibly suggests
that, over the long term and on average, educational effort drives cognitive
development.
On balance this is a notable text – perhaps, 2016’s most
important economics book, both for the development specialist and the general
reader.
Garett Jones is Associate Professor of Economics at the Center for Study of Public Choice, George Mason University |
Chapter 8 emphasizes monkey see monkey do, reminding us that
we humans are eager and able to copy the practices of prestigious others, to
the benefit of all. However, if Jones appreciates the degree to which social
segregation can short-circuit this mechanism, I missed it. This is a
potentially serious omission, since it suggests a important pathway to
enhancing the mechanism’s efficacy.
Second, Jones writes beautifully. For the most part this
book is a model of clarity and accessibility. Regrettably his explanation of
why both low skilled and high skilled workers are paid better and are also more
productive in rich nations than in poor ones is especially murky (Chapter 9).
As an economist, even if not a very good one, I think I understand what Jones
is saying, others might not.
Third, Chapter 9, on the benefits international migration,
seems tangential to the main argument of the book, not, I think, because it is,
but because the transition to this topic and its development are excessively
truncated. Indeed, so far as the last third of the book is concerned, this reader
found himself consistently wanting more.
For example, in Chapter 7, Jones talks briefly about
collective intelligence within enterprises. This is hugely important. A
nation’s productivity is merely the sum of the output of its enterprises. How
much does enterprise performance depend on the cooperative, patient,
information-seeking behavior of its members? Jones suggests that the answer may
be quite a bit. But he leaves the how sketchy. This is a pity for several reasons,
not the least of which is that it may be relevant to an understanding of
increased income inequality. We know that inequality has increased rapidly in
recent decades, nowhere more so than in the United States. According to Song, et al. (2015), most of this increase is due to increased
differences between businesses, not to increased inequality within businesses.
They claim, that over the past 30 years, wage distributions within businesses
have remained virtually constant, as has the wage gap between the highest paid
employees within enterprises and their average employees. It seems likely (see Bender, et al., 2016) that some
enterprises systematically recruit and retain workers with higher average
cognitive abilities and that workforce selection and positive pay premiums
explain much of the observed differences in productivity and earnings at the
enterprise level. I’d really like to see a more developed discussion of this
topic.
Finally, Jones is primarily concerned about improving
outcomes in less-developed nations, he has little to say about boosting
cognitive abilities in developed countries, although in the special case of the
US, which is rather like a mosaic comprised of myriad middle–income communities
and very rich ones, his strictures regarding nutrition and public health retain
considerable relevance. Nevertheless, I wish that he had paid some attention to
the potential payoffs to expanding pre-kindergarten, especially for disadvantaged
children, and of the relationship between quality of childcare and the
development of cognitive abilities.
Overall, this is a very good book, it would be better if it
were about 100 pages longer.
Song, J., Price, D.J., Guvenen, F., Bloom, N. and von Wachter,
T., 2015. Firming up inequality (No. w21199). National Bureau of
Economic Research.
Bender, S., Bloom, N., Card, D., Van Reenen, J. and Wolter,
S., 2016. Management Practices, Workforce Selection and Productivity
(No. w22101). National Bureau of Economic Research.
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