Now is a good time to reflect on the just-concluded debate over Measures 66 & 67; issues of taxes and public services, kickers and rainy day funds, are unlikely to remain on the back burner in Oregon for long.
In the run-up to the vote last month, there was a wealth of useful information, opinion and passionate testimonials that helped to inform the debate. Oregonians also heard from a number of economists who conveyed what economic research tells us about the effects of changes in taxes or public services on jobs and economic growth.
For every economist saying one thing, however, there appeared to be another economist saying pretty much the opposite. And while economists often disagree on matters of interpretation and policy, what Oregonians saw recently reflected much more than the usual differences of opinion among well-informed economists. Indeed, what occurred in Oregon recently included efforts by a small number of economists that misled Oregonians by: a) misrepresenting what scholarly economic research tells us about state and local taxes and public services, and b) portraying their own estimates as having the same credibility as published, peer-reviewed research.
These efforts represent an extraordinary break with established professional standards in economics – or in any other scholarly field – whether those economists are affiliated with universities, research institutes, or respected consulting firms. Moreover, these efforts make it difficult for the general public to distinguish between the valid insights from scholarly economic research, versus the often-contradictory claims made by three economists supported by the Portland-based libertarian Cascade Policy Institute (CPI).
It is important to be clear on what these three economists (Randy Pozdena, Eric Fruits and Bill Conerly) wrote and said, and how their words and analysis compare to established economic research and established professional conduct. First, they referred to peer-reviewed scholarly research, but repeatedly misrepresented the findings of that research. Here are a few examples:
In the run-up to the vote last month, there was a wealth of useful information, opinion and passionate testimonials that helped to inform the debate. Oregonians also heard from a number of economists who conveyed what economic research tells us about the effects of changes in taxes or public services on jobs and economic growth.
For every economist saying one thing, however, there appeared to be another economist saying pretty much the opposite. And while economists often disagree on matters of interpretation and policy, what Oregonians saw recently reflected much more than the usual differences of opinion among well-informed economists. Indeed, what occurred in Oregon recently included efforts by a small number of economists that misled Oregonians by: a) misrepresenting what scholarly economic research tells us about state and local taxes and public services, and b) portraying their own estimates as having the same credibility as published, peer-reviewed research.
These efforts represent an extraordinary break with established professional standards in economics – or in any other scholarly field – whether those economists are affiliated with universities, research institutes, or respected consulting firms. Moreover, these efforts make it difficult for the general public to distinguish between the valid insights from scholarly economic research, versus the often-contradictory claims made by three economists supported by the Portland-based libertarian Cascade Policy Institute (CPI).
It is important to be clear on what these three economists (Randy Pozdena, Eric Fruits and Bill Conerly) wrote and said, and how their words and analysis compare to established economic research and established professional conduct. First, they referred to peer-reviewed scholarly research, but repeatedly misrepresented the findings of that research. Here are a few examples:
