Thursday, February 12, 2009
Oregon's Housing Market - Foreclosures
Not surprising given the horrendous unemployment situation Oregon, I suppose, but we are (according to RealtyTrac) now number 5 in the nation in terms of the percentage of houses in foreclosure. 1 in every 357 homes in Oregon are now in some stage of foreclosure.
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9 comments:
I came here looking for this post, and in the process of reading your recent few, it has arrived. Nice work. Though I was hoping you'd shed some light as to why we're in the top five now. Thoughts?
Time constrained - but basically unemployment is the culprit I believe. We were not too high on the bubble and not too deep in the subprimes - but without incomes, even good borrowers in reasonably priced homes are in trouble.
I think "reasonably priced" is all relative. I have seen rankings that placed cities in Oregon, including Portland, high on the list of overpriced houses. Admittedly, this was after other markets had already come back down from the clouds.
Patrick, I agree with your emphasis on incomes behind the home mortgage foreclosures. However, I'd see it as an issue of income distribution not unemployment.
We were 13th in Dec and 5th now? Something doesn't seem right. Then I saw an asterisk.
*Actual increase may not be as high due to data collection changes or improvements
I hope it is as simple as that
Mike,
I thought it was a pretty strange thing too, but I didn't notice the asterisk. Good catch.
Foreclosures in Central Oregon (Bend, Redmond, Madras, La Pine, Prineville) are EXTREMELY high.
That region alone is enough to make Oregon #5 in rank.
Check this out:
http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/search.asp
and choose "Document Type"
DEF - Notice of Default and Election to Sell
You see about 20 foreclosures PER DAY.
And that's just one county.
And Bend has extremely high unemployment - plus I wonder how many retirees have seen their retirement funds plummet with the stock market.
In December the foreclosure rate was 1 in 510 now it is 1 per 357 so the increase, while big, was not impossible.
The entire economy of Central Oregon over the last 10 years has been construction and all the follow-on activities (retail, restaurants, etc.).
Now we realize it was basically all just Central Oregonians selling houses to OTHER Central Oregonians.
Yes, there was in-migration from other states (notably CA) but when you see your neighbor making $50,000 in a year buying a new house and flipping it, you start to do it too.
Quite easy to do when qualifying for $400,000 mortgages required little more than having a pulse.
Now this pyramid scheme is crumbling and Oregon, quite frankly, is going to be in deep shit because of it.
For a long time to come.
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