Thursday, February 12, 2009

Oregon's Housing Market - Foreclosures

Not surprising given the horrendous unemployment situation Oregon, I suppose, but we are (according to RealtyTrac) now number 5 in the nation in terms of the percentage of houses in foreclosure.  1 in every 357 homes in Oregon are now in some stage of foreclosure.   

10 comments:

Jeff Alworth said...

I came here looking for this post, and in the process of reading your recent few, it has arrived. Nice work. Though I was hoping you'd shed some light as to why we're in the top five now. Thoughts?

Patrick Emerson said...

Time constrained - but basically unemployment is the culprit I believe. We were not too high on the bubble and not too deep in the subprimes - but without incomes, even good borrowers in reasonably priced homes are in trouble.

Gregory said...

I think "reasonably priced" is all relative. I have seen rankings that placed cities in Oregon, including Portland, high on the list of overpriced houses. Admittedly, this was after other markets had already come back down from the clouds.

Chuck said...

Patrick, I agree with your emphasis on incomes behind the home mortgage foreclosures. However, I'd see it as an issue of income distribution not unemployment.

Mike said...

We were 13th in Dec and 5th now? Something doesn't seem right. Then I saw an asterisk.

*Actual increase may not be as high due to data collection changes or improvements

I hope it is as simple as that

Patrick Emerson said...

Mike,

I thought it was a pretty strange thing too, but I didn't notice the asterisk. Good catch.

Jeff said...

Foreclosures in Central Oregon (Bend, Redmond, Madras, La Pine, Prineville) are EXTREMELY high.

That region alone is enough to make Oregon #5 in rank.

Check this out:
http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/search.asp

and choose "Document Type"
DEF - Notice of Default and Election to Sell

You see about 20 foreclosures PER DAY.


And that's just one county.

Patrick Emerson said...

And Bend has extremely high unemployment - plus I wonder how many retirees have seen their retirement funds plummet with the stock market.

In December the foreclosure rate was 1 in 510 now it is 1 per 357 so the increase, while big, was not impossible.

Jeff said...

The entire economy of Central Oregon over the last 10 years has been construction and all the follow-on activities (retail, restaurants, etc.).

Now we realize it was basically all just Central Oregonians selling houses to OTHER Central Oregonians.

Yes, there was in-migration from other states (notably CA) but when you see your neighbor making $50,000 in a year buying a new house and flipping it, you start to do it too.

Quite easy to do when qualifying for $400,000 mortgages required little more than having a pulse.

Now this pyramid scheme is crumbling and Oregon, quite frankly, is going to be in deep shit because of it.

For a long time to come.

eyepatchman said...

Hi all,

Here's an interesting one for you.

An analysis of the current economic crisis we are all unfortunately facing but looked at from a slightly different perspective.

This analysis looks at past banking crises and how they have effected various aspects of the economy.

It is titled The Banking Crisis - Where are we now? (follow the link should you be interested) and has particularly interesting points about how the previous banking crises has effected assets including property prices.

Hope you enjoy.