Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Portland Housing Prices: New Case-Shiller Data

Here are the latest Case-Shiller home price data.  Portland is back to values last seen in February 2006, but is much better off than other cities.  All bets are off for the period ahead. In a normal slowdown I would not be worried, but this is not normal and I am very worried about everything.   

So, to give a little moderating perspective, here is the entire Portland Case-Shiller history:

So, what this shows is what we all know about real estate - it is almost always a good long term investment. We have had a bad year, but one year is but a blip in the grand scheme of things. It also suggests that we might be near the bottom based on long-term trends. But who really knows? Remember, however, that the near complete halt in new construction is providing a very strong supply response which helps prices recover. So though poor housing stars is bad news for jobs and growth, it is good news for the housing market (save for the fact that jobs and growth show up on the demand side as well).

1 comment:

Gregory said...

Prices will continue to slide throughout 2009.


In a nutshell, Portland had a very smooth trend from January 1987 to June 2004, then a bubble. We will intersect the historical trend again around the end of 2009--if you believe in those things.