Nada

Oregon's March unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.6% on a seasonally adjusted loss of 300 jobs.

Blah.

Oregon January Unemployment Falls to 8.8% on 5,400 New Jobs

The Oregon January unemployment numbers are out and the news is good, mirroring the US unemployment picture we gout a couple of weeks ago.

The state added 5,400 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis with gains in most industries but a dip in construction.  The increase in the rate was from a combination of these new jobs and from another 8,800 dropping out of the Oregon labor force. This drop out could be due to migration out of the state, discourages job seekers that have stopped looking for work, folks going back to school, etc.

As the two graphs above show, we still have a heck of a long way to go to get back to pre-recession levels of unemployment and employed persons in Oregon, but at least now we appear to be solidly on the right track.

NOTE: Josh cautions me that I am using non-seasonably adjusted labor force numbers (the 8,800) along with the SA jobs numbers.  Tisk-tisk.  He thinks the SA number is porbably more like 1,500 fewer in the labor force.  Go check out his much more detailed post.

He also has a great post on Oregon demographic trends that I was going to try and steal a part of, but I am just too busy, so go read it yourself.

Oregon Unemployment Drops to 8.9% in December

Oregon added 2400 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9% in December.  Good news, but clouds loom on the horizon...

Off to class, more thoughts later.

Oregon Unemployment Drops to 9.1% in November

Oregon's November unemployment rate dropped to 9.1% in November, but the number of employed dropped by 1,600 on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Similar to the national data the drop in the rate of unemployment is due to the number of people who exited the labor force by no longer looking for work.  That number declined by almost 7,000 people.  So there is not a lot to cheer.  Especially noteworthy was the 2,300 decline in manufacturing jobs.

Oregon Unemployment 9.5% in July

The new employment numbers are out the and news is dismal.  The unemployment rate is still stuck at 9.5% with only 300 new jobs added on a seasonally adjusted basis.  This means that the Oregon economy has added a total of 400 jobs since February.  Oregon's experience is essentially the same as the national trends which signals a stalled recovery.

Oregon Unemployment 9.4% in June

A little late on this today as I was otherwise occupied until now, but the Oregon employment picture looks a lot like the national one which is essentially stuck in neutral (oh, how many metaphors am I going to have to use?).  The unemployment rate is basically the same at 9.4% but the real information is in the jobs number which is at plus 800 for June.    As the employment department report notes, the Oregon economy has essentially added no net jobs since February. Ouch. The nice gains in private sector job growth in professional and business services (+1,200 jobs), educational and health services (+2,200), and leisure and hospitality (+4,400), were counter weighted by losses in government (‐2,900 jobs), manufacturing (‐2,000), and trade, transportation and utilities (‐1,800). The government number shows the anti-stimulus effects of state government cutting sharply right when the economy is trying to get a little momentum.

It is a little tiring trying to think of something new to say each month as each month is the same basic story: tiny glimmers of a recovery, but not enough to provide any light.

Oregon Unemployment Falls to 9.3% in May

The Oregon economy returned to positive job growth in May, adding 1,300 jobs and the state's unemployment rate fell to 9.3%, almost matching the US average.   Manufacturing was a disappointment, it added only 100 jobs when 1,100 new jobs is usual, thus it lost 1,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.  By contrast, financial activities added 1,500 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Trade, transport and utilities and educational and health services both saw strong gains as well.

Oregon Unemployment Falls to 9.6% in April

The Oregon unemployment rate fell to 9.6% in April, down from a revised March figure of 9.9%.  Note that this puts Oregon just a shade above the national rate of 9%.  In addition Oregon added 1,600 jobs in April after a loss of 2000 in March.

UPDATE: A commentator asks about the underemployment rate.  Here are all the various definitions and their Oregon estimates for April:

Underemployment as the term is generally used is the U6 measure and includes those that want to work full time and cannot, those that do not have regular employment, etc.  For Oregon is is estimated to be 18.4% in April as compared to the US which was at 15.9% for April.

Oregon February Unemployment Falls to 10.2% on Strong Jobs Growth

The February numbers are out and Oregon's jobs picture looks much better, though not enough to disabuse me of the belief that though we are indeed in recovery mode, it is still going to be a climb out.

The unemployment rate is still at a quite high 10.2%, but the number of new jobs created was a very robust 9,800 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the highest monthly jobs gain in Oregon since November 1996. The unemployment rate is of course a function of supply and demand and the supply of those looking for jobs in increasing with demand so it'll be hard to make a serious dent in it quickly, but the jobs numbers have been good for 5 months now, and it is this number that is the important one upon which to focus.  Finally some very good news about the Oregon economy.

Here is a picture of the jobs numbers:

One reason to temper enthusiasm is the terrible catastrophe in Japan, which will not help matters as it is one of the top destinations for our exports and the Port of Portland still handles a number of cars and other goods going to and coming from Japan.  Here is a picture of Oregon Exports by Country from 1997 to 2010 taken from a post at the Office of Economic Analysis Blog.

Turmoil in the middle east and the related surge in oil prices is not helping speed the recovery either.  So the moral of the story is that things are getting better, but still slowly and we still have a long climb ahead.

Oregon Unemployment Still High in January: 10.4%

Some good news from Salem this morning, Oregon's unemployment rate fell to 10.4% in January.  Not really a significant change, but the better news is the robust job growth.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, 6,300 jobs were added in January, almost all of it private sector growth, after a revised 4,000 jobs added in December.  This is progress.  But before we get too giddy, here is a buzzkil:

We have only just begun to climb out of the hole the recession created. It is going to be a long slow climb...

How is Corporate America Thriving in the Recession?

A question I get asked a lot is how can it be that so many American companies are turning healthy profits, and the Dow soaring, during such a damaging recession.  The answer I typically give is that US firms are very malleable and are able to quickly deal with lower demand.  What I mean by this is the relatively laissez faire labor market in the US makes it easy to shed workers and the threat of doing so makes it easier to get workers to put up with increased work loads, longer hours, etc.  So many firms are able to quickly adjust to the new demand they face and do just fine, thank you very much...

Now David Leonhardt has a more nuanced take of the seeming disconnect in the unemployment rate and the stock market in the New York Times.  Here is an excerpt:

Alone among the world’s economic powers, the United States is suffering through a deep jobs slump that can’t be explained by the rest of the economy’s performance.

The gross domestic product here — the total value of all goods and services — has recovered from the recession better than in Britain, Germany, Japan or Russia. Yet a greatly shrunken group of American workers, working harder and more efficiently, is producing these goods and services.

The unemployment rate is higher in this country than in Britain or Russia and much higher than in Germany or Japan, according to a study of worldwide job markets that Gallup will release on Wednesday. The American jobless rate is also higher than China’s, Gallup found. The European countries with worse unemployment than the United States tend to be those still mired in crisis, like Greece, Ireland and Spain.

Economists are now engaged in a spirited debate, much of it conducted on popular blogs like Marginal Revolution, about the causes of the American jobs slump. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard labor economist, calls the full picture “genuinely puzzling.”

That the financial crisis originated here, and was so severe here, surely plays some role. The United States had a bigger housing bubble than most other countries, leaving a large group of idle construction workers who can’t easily switch industries. Many businesses, meanwhile, are reluctant to commit to hiring workers out of a fear that heavily indebted households won’t spend much in coming years.

But beyond these immediate causes, the basic structure of the American economy also seems to be an important factor. This jobless recovery, after all, is the third straight recovery since 1991 to begin with months and months of little job growth.

Why? One obvious possibility is the balance of power between employers and employees.

Relative to the situation in most other countries — or in this country for most of the last century — American employers operate with few restraints. Unions have withered, at least in the private sector, and courts have grown friendlier to business. Many companies can now come much closer to setting the terms of their relationship with employees, letting them go when they become a drag on profits and relying on remaining workers or temporary ones when business picks up.

Just consider the main measure of corporate health: profits. In Canada, Japan and most of Europe, corporate profits have still not recovered to precrisis levels. In the United States, profits have more than recovered, rising 12 percent since late 2007.

For corporate America, the Great Recession is over. For the American work force, it’s not.

I encourage you to read the rest at the NYTimes.

Anyway, the chicken and egg problem is strong right now, corporations are sitting on a lot of cash and not investing because they are waiting for a sign that demand is going to surge, but of course with so many unemployed demand is not likely to surge.

One last little excerpt from the piece:

Improving high schools and colleges — reclaiming the global lead in education — would help even more. Remember, the jobless rate for college graduates is only 4.8 percent, and some highly skilled jobs continue to go unfilled.

In an economy where skilled labor is our comparative advantage, it pays to be skilled.

Oregon December Unemployment: Still Stuck at 10.6%

The December Oregon unemployment figures were announced today and, as usual these days, they contain both good and bad news.  The bad news is that the unemployment rate is stuck at 10.6%, the good news is that for four months running now the state added private sector jobs.  Oregon added, on a seasonally adjusted basis, 400 private sector jobs in December, however government shed 2,200 jobs leaving the state with a net loss of 1,800 jobs.

The take away is the same as last month - the situation is improving but at a glacial pace.  The wave of budget crises in the states will continue to put the brakes on growth as spending cuts are made and jobs shed - which is severely hampering our ability to climb out of the hole we've created.

Oregon November Unemployment: Rate Steady at 10.6% but Another Good Month for Jobs

You may remember that the national employment numbers for November were a huge disappointment - very few new jobs were added, when a big gain was expected.  Well in Oregon, largely because of the disappointing national numbers, I expected a very low job gain number and have been surprised again, this time pleasantly so.  6,300 jobs were added in Oregon in November, following 6,700 in October.  Two back to back healthy job gains is good news in this horrible economy.  The unemployment rate is essentially the same at 10.6%

Why the job gains and no budge in the unemployment rate?  Well, Oregon's workforce continues to grow, in fact for the first time ever, Oregon's civilian labor force has eclipsed two million people.  This is most likely due to population growth as Oregon is still a net in-migrtation state.

So it is good news but to give a healthy does of perspective here is a look at the employment numbers from the last decade:

Let's hope that this time we can keep the momentum going.

As for which sectors showed growth and which didn't the good folks at the Oregon Employment Department made this nice graphic:

Construction is still hurting badly, but trade and transport showed robust growth. 

Oregon Unemployment Stuck at 10.6%

Once again, Oregon's unemployment rate hasn't budged - for yet another month it was at 10.6% in September.  Worse, the state shed another 1,800 jobs - however the shedding of government jobs was responsible for the negative number.  The private sector added 1,600 jobs in September on a seasonally adjusted basis.  So that is something, but not enough.

Oregon August Unemployment: Stuck at 10.6%

Oregon's unemployment situation was little changed in August - the official unemployment rate remains at 10.6 percent for another month - leaving it essentially the same for almost a year.  But the depressing news was in the payroll report where the state lost another 1,500 jobs (700 of which were government jobs from the shedding of Census workers).

Given that the federal report showed 67,000 new private sector job, there was hope that we would see a positive number in Oregon, but alas, it was not to be.

This, along with slumping leading indicators, suggests it is still a long way out the woods for the state.  

Oregon July Unemployment: Holding Steady at 10.6%

The Oregon Employment Department has just released the July employment numbers.  This is a one-tenth of a percentage point gain from the revised June numbers, but is essentially stuck and has been for nine months.  The jobs number is bad: 3,000 jobs lost in July, but the revised June number is now 1,800 new jobs added, so the net effect is minimal.

Manufacturing and construction actually added 4,000 jobs while government shed 3,500 jobs including, but not limited to, census workers.

Once again, we appear to be stuck, stuck, stuck (as does the US economy) and there is no real reason to believe it will get better soon.  One hopes the federal government will come through with more aid to the states in the form of block grants, but there does not seem to be much momentum for this on Capital Hill.

Oregon June Unemployment: 10.5%

Oregon's unemployment situation remained stuck in a rut last month with a dismal jobs performance of 3,600 jobs lost on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Not much time to expound on this today, but it kind of speaks for itself.  Depressing

Oregon May Unemployment Stuck at 10.6%

The unemployment rate was flat and so were jobs.  The number of seasonally adjusted jobs added in May: 0.  Oy.

In a word: depressing.  This is beginning to look like what some call a U shaped recession which essentially means being stuck for an extended period in the trough.  And stuck we appear to be.

Oregon Unemployment in Historical Perspective

Not long ago the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis started a blog.  It is infrequent but still a great addition to the discussion of the Oregon economy.  The also have some great graphs generated from Oregon data and today they have another of the graphs that look at Oregon's present labor market troubles compared with those of the recent past.  The picture is grim but probably quite accurate.  No one can say for sure how quickly we will climb out of the current recession-created hole we are in, but there is no great hope it will be a quick process.

Anyway, check out the blog for a more in-depth discussion.

Another blog that should be on your radar is the one from the Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department (and I will update my blogroll to include both of these).

Oregon April Unemployment: 10.6%

The April unemployment figures are out for Oregon this morning and the news is better. Though the unemployment rate is unchanged at 10.6%, the state added 3,900 jobs.  The reason for the unemployment rate not dropping is the job seekers retuning to the labor force.

But there is some worrying news: manufacturing, bucking the national trend, actually lost 500 jobs. Also, given the big national job number from last week, 290,000 new jobs, I would have liked to see a better number from Oregon.  It might appear that Oregon is a laggard in the recovery, but I think it is far too soon to tell this yet and the robust growth in Asia should help us recover faster.