Quick Riff on the Housing Market and Oregon

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech at the Columbia Business School last night in which some interesting data were presented. First was some info about delinquency rates. Counties in Oregon with the lowest percentage of mortgage borrowers 90 days or more delinquent (less than 0.6%) were: Benton, Gilliam, Grant, Jackson, Sherman, and Wheeler. The second quintile (0.6% to 1.2%) included: Baker, Clackamas, Clatsop, Coos, Deschutes, Klamath, Lane, Multnomah, and Tillamook. The middle quintile (1.3% to 1.7%) included: Columbia, Jefferson, Marion, Umatilla, and Wallowa. The fourth quintile (1.8% to 2.5%) included: Lincoln, Linn, and Yamhill. No Oregon counties were in the fifth quintile (over 2.5%).

Next was some data best represented by some nice figures. The first figure represents the change in delinquency rates by county for the USA. Here we see that even if, for example, Deschutes has a relatively low overall delinquency rate, the trend is downward. Ditto for southern Oregon.



The second is the change in OFHEO Home Price Index across the USA (i.e. appreciation/depreciation). Again Bend and Ashland/Medford are the trouble spots in Oregon but Portland seems to be doing pretty well (and Corvallis rocks!). Spare a thought for poor Michigan...