Monday, November 16, 2009

Oregon October Unemployment: 11.3%

Oregon's October unemployment rate was unchanged from a revised September level of 11.3%. The best news is that non-farm payroll employment dropped by only 1,900 (September's drop was 6,000). However, manufacturing and construction (along with leisure and hospitality) saw significant job losses. Professional and business services and financial activities saw substantial gains.

So overall, a picture consistent with the general consensus: the recession is ending by the recovery is still a ways away.


PBaker said...

I'm just curious- how can the recession be ending with unemployment continuing throughout 2014, not to mention the use of manipulative statistics within the unemployment rate? I believe we are over the 20% mark on unemployment if we attempt to use as close to 'perfect knowledge' as possible to figure this problem out. Would you mind placing a supply and demand curve for labor up on your site? Would love to see what the wages are going to be for the newly employed as well.

Patrick Emerson said...

It is really a problem of semantics and I mentioned this on OPB: people getting grumpy hearing the recession if over. But recession is a technical term that essentially means negative GDP growth. It is like a doctor saying the surgery is over, which is nice, but it doesn't mean you feel back to normal.

Unemployment has a precise definition. You may argue that we need a different statistic (like unemployed and underemployed) but unemployment, the number of people actively looking for work that cannot find a job is not manipulative. It simply is what it is.

PBaker said...

Not grumpy in the least- just saddened by the policies put forth for corporations over individuals. I'm secure even if the dollar was to collapse though I do not go that far.

GDP growth does not subtract negative externalities nor the deterioration of capital so when such is construed, the US has had negative growth since what- the 60's if not longer. True- manipulation is subjective but only when you can't prove your point rationally- with solid facts.

Unemployment does not have a precise definition either. It has been broken down into multiple subcategories, defined by different institutions. When you advertise 11.3%, your leaving quite a few individuals out of the picture, usually double of what U1 states. Another sly way of maintaining confidence. After 15 weeks, it can seem if employment has risen. Stating 'it simply is what it is' is nothing but a fallacy.