Thursday, May 12, 2011

The May Oregon Revenue Forecast

About what I expected: slightly better but no tidal wave of new revenue to save the state.  The new forecast predicts an additional $128 million for the next biennium.  Always nice to have more, but realistically, this is hardly enough to make a real difference. It is clear that this is going to be a long and slow recovery and it will take time to recover the lost revenues.  In the meantime public school districts are resorting to draconian measures to further diminish what already is an embarrassment of a public education system.

Anyway here are a couple of pictures from the presentation to the legislature this morning.

The first is the graph of Personal Income Tax Collections presented as a % change from one year ago (3 month moving sum):

The second is revenue growth relative to the March forecast - corporate is doing better than forecast but personal is doing worse:

In the mean time lawmakers will haver another $40 million plus hole to fill before the end of the current fiscal year.

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