Here is the latest Case-Shiller index for Portland home prices. I have also included Seattle as a basis for comparison. I have to admit, I am pretty amazed, I thought that things would be much worse by now. Seattle is starting to fall fairly quickly, but Portland is not. The January and February numbers might be a bit worse, but I think the market is already showing signs of increased activity as Spring approaches. However, long-term mortgage rates are rising quickly (see yesterday's post) and this might put damper on the market in short order. Despite this, I have to say I am slowly switching from a pessimist to an optimist.
2 comments:
Hi Jeff,
Thanks for checking in. I have been very much a pessimist, but I am not so sure now. I actually think that the late houing boom in Portland has helped it avoid too big a bubble. Still the next few months will be very revealing - so time will tell.
Let me also note that a possible problem with relying on median prices is the heavy use of incentives and concessions to get the houses sold. In the last several months sellers have often been paying 4% of the buyers' closing costs. New home developers are throwing in incentives like vacations or decorating allowances. These don't get reflected in the final reported price.
So why don't they just drop the price? Realtors can maintain their higher commission while pointing to the strength of the local housing market.
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